What a week that was. Vikings win, Packers are dead, and Fred went 3-0 against the model. Put some serious distance between myself and the machine (read: 4 wins). Gonna be even sweeter when I stuff the model in a locker on back to back weeks. I’ve got the model on the ropes, now it’s time to start hammering away. As my father would always say to the 10-year-old hockey players he was coaching, “You’ve got your skate on their throat, now press.” Let’s cook.
Philadelphia vs Washington | Model Says:Eagles -4.5
Now here’s something you don’t see often: two NFC East teams playing in prime time. No ifs ands or buts, Philly is looking good (shout out me for picking them to win the East) but if there’s one thing I’ve learned from this NFL season it’s that nothing makes sense. For three weeks a team can look like they’re winning the super bowl and next thing you know they’ve rattled off three straight losses. Anytime a team is anointed as a super bowl contender, they immediately lose. Just ask the Patriots, Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers. Captain Kirk and the Skins cover and maybe upset the Eagles in Philly.
Final Prediction: Washington +4.5
LA Rams vs Arizona | Model Says: Rams -3.5
So I may or may not have been wrong about AP last week. It appears that he still has at least a little life left in him. I still think he’s ultimately going to be pretty much ineffective for the Cards but the change of scenery may give him enough spark in the first few weeks to make some plays. Huge NFC West divisional game between two teams looking to compete with the Seahawks. I’ll take the experience of the Cardinals to win out against young Jared Goff.
Final Prediction:Cardinals +3.5
Green Bay vs New Orleans| Model Says: Under 47.5
I may be an idiot here but I actually think the Packers and Hundley are going to surprise some people this weekend. The kid got thrown into a really tough situation on the road against a great defense and a veteran coach. Really no chance he was going to be successful. I think that if you give the Pack a week, they’ll throw together a game plan that’ll make their offense at least serviceable. Add on the fact that Brees and the Saints are clicking and the Packers defense is just awful and I smell a shootout.
Final Prediction: Over 47.5
Additional Picks
San Francisco +6 vs. Dallas: The Niners have been cover MACHINES this year. Still haven’t won a game but dammit do they cover. Good teams win, great teams cover.
Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville Over 43.5: This is one of those games where I like to play a little trick on my brain. Indianapolis and Jacksonville over? That makes no sense, which is why it makes perfect sense. All signs point to the under? Hammer the over. Tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme.
Miami -3 vs. NYJ: Jets have been surprising this year, to say the least. A win last weekend would have put them tied atop the AFC East. With the help of one of the strangest fumble calls these eyes have ever seen, they lost a tough one to the Patriots. I think that loss pretty much ends it for the Jets this year. Water always finds its level and it’s time for the Jets to go back to sucking. They had their fun, made a little early season noise, now it’s time to go back to the well and lose out.
That’s it for this week. SKOL
Fred: 9 Model: 5
Total Record: 13-13