The article below gives our models’ predictions for the final game of the 2017 NFL season, Super Bowl 52. For more detailed examples of how to interpret our models, see last week’s article. Note that all of our numbers adjust for the fact that the game is at a neutral site.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Super Bowl 52
Category Archives: Football
My Model Monday: NFL Home-Field Advantage
In this week’s installment of My Model Monday, I take a shot at quantifying home-field advantage for NFL teams and unpacking exactly what goes into that advantage.
Continue reading My Model Monday: NFL Home-Field Advantage
NFL Predictions – Conference Championships
The article below gives our models’ predictions for the Conference Championship matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Conference Championships
2017 NFL Win Totals and Elo Ratings
Below is a table of our 2017 NFL Playoff Simulation and Elo Ratings (heading into the Conference Championship games). Tune in for weekly updates to these figures throughout the 2017 NFL Playoffs Season. Our NFL Season Simulator Methodology and Elo Rating Methodology articles provide further explanation in how we calculate the probabilites of each team making it to each round of the playoffs as well as our Elo Ratings, respectively.
NFL Predictions – Divisional Round
The article below gives our models’ predictions for divisional playoff matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Divisional Round
NFL Predictions – Wild Card Round
The article below gives our models’ predictions for playoff matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Wild Card Round
QB Fantasy Projections – Week 17
Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 17 of 2017.
QB Model Background
Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.
To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team. Continue reading QB Fantasy Projections – Week 17
Team Defense Projections – Week 17
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 17 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 17
NFL Predictions – Week 17
The article below gives our models’ predictions for Week 17 matchups of the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Week 17
Friday Fantasy Preview – Week 16
Merry playoffs, and a happy championship week. Welcome to the Week 16 edition of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you.