The article below gives our models’ predictions for the final game of the 2017 NFL season, Super Bowl 52. For more detailed examples of how to interpret our models, see last week’s article. Note that all of our numbers adjust for the fact that the game is at a neutral site.
Win Probability and Spread Prediction
Our model gives the Patriots a 68% chance of winning the game, slightly higher than their Vegas-implied win probability of 65% (-185 on the money line). Our spread model has the Patriots winning by 5.3 points, again slightly higher than Vegas, where the Patriots are currently 4.5-point favorites. Conversely, our cover probability model (which is generated separately from the spread model) slightly favors the Eagles, though it is very close to 50-50. Overall, our models do not stray too far from Vegas on this one, and if anything would lean towards New England.
The total is currently 48 points, which has ticked up since the opener of 46 or 47. Our models side with the over here, with our total model coming in at 51.4 and our over probability at 59%.
Updated 9 PM CT Tuesday (1/30)
Final Model Accuracy For 2017
Here is the accuracy of each of our NFL models for Week 1 – Week 21, with prediction accuracy graded against closing numbers:
- 284 Win Prob: 181-86 (68%) – Playoffs: 5-6
- 284 Spread: 129-130 ATS (50%) – Playoffs: 5-5-1
- 284 Cover Prob: 130-129 ATS (50%) -Playoffs: 5-5-1
- 284 Total: 134-130 (51%) -Playoffs: 6-5
- 284 Over Prob: 135-129 (51%) -Playoffs: 7-4