Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 5
All posts by Marc Richards
Team Defense Projections – Week 4
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 4
Team Defense Projections – Week 3
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 3 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 3
Team Defense Projections – Week 2
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 2 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 2
Team Defense Fantasy Projections – Week 1
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 1 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.
Pitcher Similarity Score Tool
Use this tool to pull up your favorite pitcher and see his top ten most similar players! Methodology for these scores can be found here.
Pitcher Similarity Score Methodology
Why Pitcher Similarity Scores?
Similarity scores, at their best, are a fun and useful way to understand patterns in athletes. We’ve dabbled in similarity scores here at Model 284 before, and now we’re applying it to Major League Baseball pitchers. Our motivation for this project is twofold.
NFL Season Simulation Methodology
This article gives an in-depth dive into our prediction and ranking system for NFL teams. Tune into our win projections, rankings, and Elo ratings throughout the 2017 NFL Season – our numbers going into Week 1 can be found here.
Continue reading NFL Season Simulation Methodology
Model 284 NFL Elo Ratings Methodology
This article dives into the concept of Elo ratings in general and then covers the details of our own methodology for creating Elo ratings for NFL teams. Be sure to tune into our weekly Elo ratings and ranking system for the 2017 NFL season, which we will be publishing weekly. Our numbers going into Week 1 can be found here.
Continue reading Model 284 NFL Elo Ratings Methodology
The Predictive Value of NBA Summer League: NBA Rookies
Every July since 2004, a couple hundred NBA hopefuls have gathered in Orlando, Utah, and Las Vegas to compete in 5-6 junk ball basketball games known as the Summer League. Whether you’re an NBA operations analyst or just a fan, NBA Summer League provides another opportunity to see a player—or in our case, another data point to project a player. But how much should we really take away from a few junk ball games in the beginning of July? Or, in “statistical” terms, what is the predictive value of summer league for a player’s actual NBA Performance? This analysis seeks to provide insights into how historical Summer League performances have related to NBA performances. More specifically, we’ll seek an answer to questions such as: how much can NBA Summer League performance tell us about overall rookie performance? How about second-year returning players? What should we take away, if anything, from these varying levels of performance in Summer League? In this article, I will focus solely on NBA rookies, providing meaningful data points and inferences about which statistics best translate from Summer League to NBA Rookie Season.
Continue reading The Predictive Value of NBA Summer League: NBA Rookies