The NBA Role Probability Model predicts the likelihood that a given college basketball player becomes an All-Star, starter, bench player, or does not make it in the NBA. The model considers individual box score statistics, team-level statistics (e.g. strength of schedule), physical measurements, high school scouting rank, position, and age/experience to predict the probability of a player landing each NBA role. For more detail on how this model is formulated, see this article. The Role Probability model is one of three pieces that we use to evaluate the NBA potential of college and international players, with the other two being PNSP and Similarity Scores. In the table below, you can find the model’s predicted probabilities for each 2018 prospect landing in a given role in the NBA.
Highlights
Luka Doncic breaks the model yet again (as he did with this year’s PNSP model). Doncic comes out with an 89.5% All-Star Probability, which does not seem reasonable. If you break down the model to see what is driving this outlier prediction, you come away with the conclusion that their simply has not been a player of Luka’s age (19.1 years old) in Europe with his amount of production. While we wouldn’t agree that there is a 90% chance Doncic becomes an All-Star, his production certainly instills confidence in his ability to translate to the NBA. Other notable players with modeled All-Star probabilities above 70% include Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Lonzo Ball, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and DeMarcus Cousins.
Next up are a pair of behemoth big man in DeAndre Ayton and Mohamed Bamba. While both have high All-Star probabilities, Bamba’s Non-NBA probability (10%) is much higher than Ayton’s (4%), which aligns with institution, given a frequent player comp for Bamba is Hasheem Thabeet. These two are intriguing, as history has shown that when players with extreme physical advantages also have enough basketball skill/IQ, they can end up as generational talents (e.g., Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, etc.). These high All-Star probabilities indicate that this is well within the range of outcomes for Ayton and Bamba.
Miles and Mikal Bridges rate among the top Starter probabilities (55% and 62%, respectively). Both Bridges are wing players that have shown an ability to score in a variety of ways and play multiple positions. Their experience, physical measurements, and diverse skill make them adaptable to any lineup. While their upside seems a bit limited, we should be confident that the Bridges will be positive contributors to an NBA lineup in some fashion.
Stay tuned for the release of our 2018 Similarity Scores and other draft coverage leading up to June’s NBA Draft. And as always #TrustTheModel
| PLAYER | POS | ALL-STAR | STARTER | BENCH | NON-NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | PG/SG | 89.4% | 10.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Deandre Ayton | C | 59.3% | 31.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% |
| Mohamed Bamba | C | 50.2% | 35.2% | 4.9% | 9.8% |
| Trae Young | PG | 43.1% | 37.8% | 5.9% | 13.2% |
| Marvin Bagley III | PF/C | 38.6% | 47.6% | 8.7% | 5.1% |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | C | 38.0% | 48.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PG/SG | 36.4% | 30.7% | 10.2% | 22.6% |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | PF/C | 30.5% | 48.5% | 15.4% | 5.6% |
| Collin Sexton | PG | 30.2% | 40.8% | 17.8% | 11.2% |
| Robert Williams | C | 23.6% | 43.2% | 20.1% | 13.2% |
| Elie Okobo | PG | 19.2% | 44.7% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| Khyri Thomas | SG | 18.2% | 50.0% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| Miles Bridges | SF/PF | 16.5% | 54.6% | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Josh Okogie | SG | 16.4% | 13.4% | 45.3% | 24.8% |
| Troy Brown | SG | 16.1% | 37.5% | 12.0% | 34.7% |
| Melvin Frazier | SF | 12.6% | 44.8% | 22.5% | 20.0% |
| Theo Pinson | PG/SG | 12.3% | 30.2% | 10.0% | 47.6% |
| Mikal Bridges | SF | 12.0% | 61.7% | 19.8% | 6.5% |
| Bruce Brown Jr. | SG | 11.7% | 23.3% | 12.8% | 52.2% |
| Trevon Duval | PG | 11.6% | 42.0% | 27.5% | 18.9% |
| Zhaire Smith | SF | 11.3% | 39.4% | 25.1% | 24.2% |
| Kevin Huerter | SG | 10.7% | 35.3% | 39.6% | 14.4% |
| Brandon McCoy | C | 10.5% | 35.7% | 19.4% | 34.4% |
| Bruno Fernando | C | 10.1% | 40.9% | 27.0% | 22.0% |
| Hamidou Diallo | SG | 9.6% | 16.5% | 19.6% | 54.2% |
| Dzanan Musa | SF | 9.2% | 49.5% | 20.6% | 20.8% |
| Omari Spellman | PF | 9.0% | 29.4% | 33.3% | 28.2% |
| Alize Johnson | PF | 8.6% | 29.2% | 33.9% | 28.4% |
| Jaylen Hands | PG | 8.4% | 31.4% | 18.2% | 42.0% |
| Tony Carr | PG | 8.4% | 11.5% | 43.6% | 36.5% |
| Chandler Hutchison | SG/SF | 8.4% | 31.7% | 23.5% | 36.4% |
| Jevon Carter | PG | 7.9% | 32.9% | 33.3% | 25.9% |
| Rawle Alkins | SG | 7.5% | 16.8% | 42.7% | 33.0% |
| Ray Spalding | PF | 7.3% | 40.3% | 13.7% | 38.7% |
| Moritz Wagner | C | 7.3% | 51.7% | 31.9% | 9.1% |
| Kevin Knox | SF/PF | 7.1% | 45.5% | 32.0% | 15.4% |
| Landry Shamet | PG | 7.1% | 25.0% | 44.2% | 23.7% |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | SF | 6.9% | 33.0% | 13.0% | 45.3% |
| Donte DiVincenzo | PG | 6.9% | 36.7% | 37.6% | 18.8% |
| Keita Bates-Diop | PF | 6.9% | 25.8% | 35.0% | 32.3% |
| Doral Moore | C | 6.8% | 32.5% | 24.6% | 36.2% |
| Shake Milton | PG/SG | 6.8% | 15.0% | 50.5% | 27.7% |
| Justin Jackson | SF | 6.7% | 29.6% | 34.3% | 29.3% |
| Kevin Hervey | SF | 6.7% | 22.0% | 26.0% | 45.3% |
| D'Anthony Melton | PG/SG | 6.5% | 40.0% | 29.6% | 23.8% |
| Shamorie Ponds | PG | 6.4% | 48.0% | 21.6% | 23.9% |
| Kostas Antetokounmpo | SF | 5.5% | 25.8% | 4.9% | 63.8% |
| Aaron Holiday | PG | 5.4% | 25.2% | 40.7% | 28.7% |
| Malik Newman | PG/SG | 5.3% | 40.6% | 42.1% | 11.9% |
| Gary Clark | PF | 5.3% | 31.9% | 37.7% | 25.1% |
| Jalen Brunson | PG | 5.3% | 36.5% | 34.8% | 23.4% |
| Allonzo Trier | SG | 5.2% | 34.5% | 37.4% | 22.9% |
| Jacob Evans | SF | 4.9% | 24.5% | 50.5% | 20.2% |
| Kenrich Williams | PF | 3.9% | 48.2% | 27.9% | 20.0% |
| Lindell Wigginton | PG | 3.5% | 12.2% | 23.8% | 60.6% |
| Lonnie Walker IV | SG | 3.5% | 26.8% | 19.1% | 50.6% |
| Kris Wilkes | SF/PF | 3.5% | 27.3% | 27.5% | 41.7% |
| Isaac Haas | C | 3.5% | 11.0% | 49.4% | 36.2% |
| Gary Trent Jr. | SG | 3.4% | 25.5% | 37.4% | 33.8% |
| Jaylen Barford | SG | 3.3% | 16.7% | 48.9% | 31.0% |
| Grayson Allen | SG | 3.2% | 25.4% | 43.4% | 28.1% |
| Bonzie Colson | PF | 2.6% | 31.0% | 27.7% | 38.7% |
| Jerome Robinson | PG | 2.6% | 18.3% | 37.2% | 42.0% |
| Rodions Kurucs | SF/PF | 2.6% | 68.3% | 22.9% | 6.1% |
| Devonte' Graham | PG | 2.5% | 14.2% | 47.6% | 35.6% |
| Chimezie Metu | PF/C | 2.3% | 21.7% | 38.6% | 37.4% |
| George King | SF | 2.2% | 9.7% | 40.2% | 47.8% |
| Keenan Evans | PG | 2.1% | 13.2% | 26.7% | 57.9% |
| Sagaba Konate | C | 2.1% | 17.5% | 45.5% | 35.0% |
| DJ Hogg | SF/PF | 1.9% | 14.6% | 37.3% | 46.2% |
| Tyus Battle | SG/SF | 1.8% | 11.8% | 48.3% | 38.1% |
| Jalen Hudson | SG | 1.6% | 12.7% | 29.8% | 56.0% |
| Devon Hall | SG | 1.4% | 12.8% | 46.1% | 39.7% |
| Yante Maten | PF | 1.3% | 5.8% | 36.6% | 56.2% |
| Kerwin Roach | PG/SG | 1.2% | 12.9% | 22.7% | 63.2% |
| Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk | SG | 0.6% | 8.0% | 50.5% | 40.9% |
*Data retrieved from Basketball Reference, Sports Reference, and DraftExpress.
Written by Marc Richards and Jack Werner.
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