All posts by Eric King

2018 NBA Conference Finals

The probabilities for our second round predictions were generated from four unique statistical models that are built on team and player level data from the regular season. Our prediction for each series comes from computing the average of these four models. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued. For more information on our modeling techniques check out our methodologies page. Continue reading 2018 NBA Conference Finals

My Model Monday: Deep Dive Into Technical Fouls

Tensions between players and NBA officials have been on the rise over the past couple years. In the 2016 – 2017 season, referees called 917 technical fouls, and in the 2017 – 2018 season that number increased to 946. Players and coaches are antagonizing referees more and more, forcing referees into handing out more technical fouls. On most occasions, a technical fouls is due to a player or coach letting their emotions get the best of them. Other times, the technical may have been drawn intentionally to send a message. When a technical foul is called, the opposing team is awarded a free throw, but the overall effect on the game doesn’t always end there. In this article, I investigate how technical fouls effect the game from the perspective of the teams involved and the officials. All of the data in this analysis came from basketball-reference.com. Continue reading My Model Monday: Deep Dive Into Technical Fouls

2018 NBA Playoffs Second Round

The probabilities for our second round predictions were generated from a combination of models that are built on team and player level data from the regular season. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued. For more information on our modeling techniques check out our methodologies page.

Continue reading 2018 NBA Playoffs Second Round

2018 NBA Playoff Bracket

Below is our projected bracket for the 2018 NBA playoffs. These probabilities were generated from a combination of models that are built on data from the regular season. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued (e.g., the Boston Celtics). Continue reading 2018 NBA Playoff Bracket

My Model Monday: Wide Receiver Draft Model

This year’s class of players entering the NFL draft lacks real star power at the Wide Receiver position. At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be a cant-miss player like a Julio Jones or Calvin Jonson. However, it’s important to remember that the most dominant receiver in the game today, Antonio Brown, was considered a below average prospect prior to the 2010 draft, and wasn’t picked until the 6th round, after 21 (!) wide receivers already went off the board. It is certainly possible there is another hidden gem hiding in this years crop of Wide Receivers.

Continue reading My Model Monday: Wide Receiver Draft Model

NFL Combine Tool

To use the Combine Tool, enter the name of a player and click go. The charts display that player’s scores in the 6 main NFL Combine drills: 40-yard dash, Broad Jump, Vertical Jump, Shuttle Run, 3 Cone Run, and Bench Press. The Yellow distribution curves show the distribution of other players’ scores from the selected player’s position. The numbers above each chart are the given player’s score for the drill and the percentile that that score falls in relative to other players at that position. The data comes from www.pro-football-reference.com and nflcombineresults.com. Our sample consists of all NFL Combine Invitees from 2005 – 2018. Look up some current and former players, or some players that will be coming off the board in this year’s draft!
Continue reading NFL Combine Tool

My Model Monday: Predicting NBA Awards

  1. Now that the NBA season is halfway completed, I trained a model to predict the major individual award winners – MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year, using statistics from the first half of the season. The modeled probabilities do not reflect who we at Model 284 think should win the award; instead, they indicate the probability of a given player winning the award based on the statistics from the players who the voters have chosen in the past.  Continue reading My Model Monday: Predicting NBA Awards

My Model Monday: Crash the Glass or Get Back?

In the seconds immediately following a shot attempt, the players on offense can take one of two actions: (1) get back on defense to prevent a potential transition bucket from your opponents, or (2) crash the paint to get in position for an offensive rebound. In the article below, I explore the positive and negative impacts of each option. Continue reading My Model Monday: Crash the Glass or Get Back?

Wide Receiver Consistency in Fantasy Football

An underrated aspect of Fantasy Football is a player’s consistency (or weekly reliability). Amari Cooper and Demaryius Thomas have both averaged 9.14 fantasy points per game over their past thirty games. However, they took different paths to get there, with Demaryius performing more consistently, but Cooper having higher weekly upside. Understanding your player’s consistency is important when weighing your lineup’s overall safety and upside. If you can afford to take on the risk of a more volatile player, Cooper is a better choice, but if you simply need 8-10 points to secure a win, plug in Demaryius. With this framework, we looked at the top ranked fantasy players’ prior 30 games to paint a picture of their recent fantasy production and consistency. In the article below, we look at the Wide Receiver position. We already covered Running Backs here, Tight Ends here, and Quarterbacks here.

Continue reading Wide Receiver Consistency in Fantasy Football

Quarterback Consistency in Fantasy Football

An underrated aspect of Fantasy Football is a player’s consistency (or weekly reliability). Amari Cooper and Demaryius Thomas have both averaged 9.14 fantasy points per game over their past thirty games. However, they took different paths to get there, with Demaryius performing more consistently, but Cooper having higher weekly upside. Understanding your player’s consistency is important when weighing your lineup’s overall safety and upside. If you can afford to take on the risk of a more volatile player, Cooper is a better choice, but if you simply need 8-10 points to secure a win, plug in Demaryius. With this framework, we looked at the top ranked fantasy players’ prior 30 games to paint a picture of their recent fantasy production and consistency. In the article below, we look at the Quarterback position. We already covered Running Backs here and Tight Ends here.

Continue reading Quarterback Consistency in Fantasy Football