Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE)

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, if New Orleans’s FPAE against QBs is 5.0, that means they have given up an average of 5 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. We give a full explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values against each position group are shown below and were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).
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Man vs Model – Week 6

I’d like to start this post by offering my sincerest of apologies to all 6 of my loyal readers for not making a Man vs Model blog last week. Circumstances arose that had me scrambling around all week but that’s no excuse. When you make a commitment to fight a machine, you fight the machine week in and week out. I’d also like to preface these picks by saying I just took the GRE and my brain is a little fried. Been studying all week so I haven’t done my usual research before the picks but in a sense that just forces me to make my picks based even more on feel and gut reaction. No way that goes poorly. Let’s go.
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Team Defense Projections Week 6

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 6 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections Week 6

2017 NFL Win Totals and Elo Ratings

Below is a table of our 2017 NFL projected win totals and Elo Ratings (heading into Week 6). Rank is based upon each team’s Projected Win Total for the remainder of the season, which is derived from our NFL Season Simulator. The standard deviation associated with each team’s Projected Win Total is denoted SD. Tune in for weekly updates to these figures throughout the 2017 NFL Season. Our NFL Season Simulator Methodology and Elo Rating Methodology articles provide further explanation in how we calculate our Projected Win Totals and Elo Ratings, respectively.

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