What’s that saying? Water always finds its’ level? Well, after a 6-0 effort my last time on the keyboard I put up a goose egg last week. 0-6. That one hurts. Flying high as hell, thinking I’m the cats meow, and the gambling gods bitch slapped me right back to the stone age. Hate to see it happen to anyone, but especially to myself. But like I seem to say pretty much every week, you gotta just keep your nose to the grind stone and get right back on the horse.
Continue reading Man vs Model – Week 15
Merry playoffs, and welcome to the Week 15 edition of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you.
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 15 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 15
The guys find themselves in an unfamiliar place this week – discussing a Vikings loss. They all cover Aaron Rodgers’ return from injury, the Wolves, and the Giancarlo Stanton trade. CEO and Star Wars super fan Sam Walczak comes on to discuss the Last Jedi and Fred does his 5 minutes of research on net neutrality.
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Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 15 of 2017.
Continue reading QB Fantasy Projections – Week 15
The article below gives our models’ predictions for Week 15 matchups of the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Week 15
Below is a table of our 2017 NFL projected win totals and Elo Ratings (heading into Week 15). Rank is based upon each team’s Projected Win Total for the remainder of the season, which is derived from our NFL Season Simulator. The standard deviation associated with each team’s Projected Win Total is denoted SD. Tune in for weekly updates to these figures throughout the 2017 NFL Season. Our NFL Season Simulator Methodology and Elo Rating Methodology articles provide further explanation in how we calculate our Projected Win Totals and Elo Ratings, respectively.
Continue reading 2017 NFL Win Totals and Elo Ratings
Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, if New Orleans’s FPAE against QBs is 5.0, that means they have given up an average of 5 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. We give a full explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values against each position group are shown below and were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).
Continue reading Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE)
Merry playoffs, and welcome to the Week 14 edition of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you.
Continue reading Friday Fantasy Preview – Week 14
I’d like to apologize for the absence of the Man vs Model last week – it was my brother’s wedding weekend and as second in line to the best man I had my hands full with responsibility. Really no excuse though so you all have my sincerest apologies… HOWEVAAAAAHHH, the week before last I had my first perfect week going 3-0 against the model and 3-0 on my additional picks. As my grandfather always said “even a blind pig finds a truffle.” Honestly no idea why a pig would be in search of a truffle but the point stands.
Continue reading Man vs Model – Week 14