Man vs Model – Week 12

It is Thanksgiving Week and if you think there is a better week in the calendar year you are just flat out wrong. Thanksgiving is the best holiday there is and I’ll hear nothing else about it. All of the good parts of Christmas (food, family, football) without any of the stress. Just a really, really nice day. Nothing better than that. We also get to watch the 8-2 Vikings play on Thanksgiving this year which is just the cherry on top to an already perfect day.
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Team Defense Projections – Week 12

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 12 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 12

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE)

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, if New Orleans’s FPAE against QBs is 5.0, that means they have given up an average of 5 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. We give a full explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values against each position group are shown below and were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).
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2017 NFL Win Totals and Elo Ratings

Below is a table of our 2017 NFL projected win totals and Elo Ratings (heading into Week 12). Rank is based upon each team’s Projected Win Total for the remainder of the season, which is derived from our NFL Season Simulator. The standard deviation associated with each team’s Projected Win Total is denoted SD. Tune in for weekly updates to these figures throughout the 2017 NFL Season. Our NFL Season Simulator Methodology and Elo Rating Methodology articles provide further explanation in how we calculate our Projected Win Totals and Elo Ratings, respectively.

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Man vs Model – Week 11

Another tough week for the man fighting the good fight against the machine. 1-2 against the model and 2-4 overall. Still have a two-game lead over the model going into Week 11 but if I’m being honest, I’m running out of steam. Feels like I’m just going through the motions out here. Each week I open up the same goddamn sports book, look at the same goddamn teams, and right pretty much the same goddamn bullshit. I’ve officially reached my mid-season blues. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a bye week for a blogger/podcaster/division 3 play-by-play broadcaster so I have no choice but to plunge right back into the shit and try to work my way through this funk.
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Team Defense Projections – Week 11

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 11 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 11