2020 Peak NBA Statline Projection Model

Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) is a model used to project NBA success for college and International basketball players. PNSP considers each player’s individual and team statistics, physical measurements, high school scouting ranking, and age/experience. The PNSP model returns a single rating value from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating a “better” NBA prospect. We provide a detailed article outlining how PNSP is formulated here, and PNSP rankings from previous years can be found here. Below are a few highlights for the 2020 NBA Draft Class, and a listing of each player’s PNSP.


First and foremost, it is important to remember that a player’s PNSP score is calculated relative to players within the same position. Ranking of players by PNSP across different positions is a different use than originally intended. For example, saying Tyrese Haliburton is a “better” prospect than James Wiseman because his 82.9 PNSP rating is higher than Wiseman’s 77.1 is not necessarily true, because they play different positions.

PNSP’s top NBA Draft prospect for 2020 is LaMelo Ball. LaMelo’s modestly high projection is driven primarily by his high usage, playmaking (AST:TOV and AST), and great size for his position. Further, by our metrics, the NBL is actually ranked as a better league than the NCAA. Surprisingly, the funky shooting Tyrese Haliburton ranks 2nd ahead of more heralded prospect Anthony Edwards. If you take a look at Sports Reference, you will see that Haliburton absolutely filled up the box score on an average Iowa State team. Beyond LaMelo, there is not much that separates the top 10 by PNSP, fitting the narrative that many prospects have wide ranges and there is little consensus.

Obi Toppin and Patrick Williams are the two prospects that PNSP rank’s furthest from consensus. Toppin’s heavily discounted for his age and lack of profile out of high school. Further, his rebounding, BLK%, FT shooting marks are below average relative to his position. Patrick Williams, on the other hand, just did not play enough to be rated highly by a metric like PNSP. For those not familiar, Patrick Williams came off the bench for a really good Florida State team this past season. Lastly, I wouldn’t read too much into PNSP’s ranking of James Wiseman. He barely played in college making it extremely difficult to give an accurate projection.

The consensus opinion of the 2020 NBA Draft is that it lacks top-end talents. PNSP agrees, ranking no players above 90, typically PNSP’s mark for an elite prospect. Every draft except 2013 has had a prospect ranked higher than 90. However, the draft might be deeper than people think. For example, PNSP has 15 players above 70 whereas last year PNSP only had 11 prospects above 70.

1LaMelo BallPGUSA87.2
2Tyrese HaliburtonPG/SGIowa State82.9
3Anthony EdwardsSGGeorgia81.1
4Deni AvdjiaSF/PFIsrael80.3
5Devin VassellSG/SFFlorida State79.9
6Oneya OkongwuCUSC78.1
7James Wiseman*CMemphis77.1
8Killan HayesPGFrance76.5
9Isaac OkoroSG/SFAuburn75.5
10RJ HamptonPG/SGUSA74.5
11Aaron NesmithSG/SFVanderbilt74.1
12Saddiq BeySF/PFVillanova73.9
13Kira Lewis JrPGAlabama73.2
14Obi ToppinPF/CDayton72.1
15Tyrese MaxeyPG/SGKentucky71.1
16Precious AchiuwaPF/CMemphis68.9
17Desmond BaneSG/SFTCU67.9
18Cole AnthonyPGUNC67.7
19Leandro BolmaroSGArgentina67.1
20Josh GreenSG/SFArizona66.6
21Aleksej Pokusevski*PF/CSerbia65.9
22Patrick WilliamsPFFlorida State65.7
23Tyrell TerryPGStanford64.9
24Tre JonesPGDuke63.9
25Cassius WinstonPGMichigan State63.8
26Killian TillePF/CGonzaga62.2
27Sam MerrilSG/SFUtah State61.9
28Jalen SmithPF/CMaryland61.1
29Malachi FlynnPGSan Diego State60
30Theo MaledonPGFrance59.8
31Justinian JessupSGBoise State57.7
32Payton PrichardPGOregon55.4
33Zeke NnajiCArizona55.1
34Immanuel QuickleyPGKentucky54.6
35Isaiah JoeSGArkansas54.1
36Nico ManionPGArizona54.1
37Paul ReedPFDePaul53.9
38Devon DotsonPGKansas53.9
39Jaden McDanielsSF/PFWashington53.1
40Jordan NworaPF/CLouisville52.4
41Cassius StanleySGDuke52.3
42Jahmius RamseyPG/SGTexas Tech51.9
43Rokas JokubaitisPGLithuania51.3
44Yam MadarPGIsrael49.8
45Daniel OturuCMinnesota48.6
46Jalen HarrisSGNevada47.8
47Myles PowellPGSeton Hall45.5
48Markus HowardPGMarquette44.9
49Reggie PerryCMississippi State43.6
50Skylar MaysSGLSU43.3
51Isaiah StewartCWashington43.2
52Grant RillerPGCharleston41.9
53Nick RichardsCKentucky39.2
54Ashton HagansPG/SGKentucky38.4
55Tyler BeyPFColorado38.3
56Vernon Carey JrCDuke36.1
57Elijah HughesSGSyracuse34.2
58Udoka AzubuikeCKansas33.1
59Mason JonesSGArkansas33.1
60Xavier TillmanCMichigan State29.6
61Naji MarshallPFXavier28.7
62Nate HintonSGHouston25.6
63Lamar StevensSF/PFPenn State22.3
64Mamadi DiakiteCVirginia21.3
65Austin WileyCAuburn14.7
66Kaleb WessonPF/COhio State13.9
67Omer YurtsevenCGeorgetown11.1
68Anthony LambSF/PFVermont7.1
69Jon TeskeCMichigan3.1

*Data retrieved from Basketball ReferenceSports Reference, RealGM, and DraftExpress.