Team Defense Projections Week 6

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 6 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

Week 6 is upon us, and there are a lot of juicy matchups in play that have the potential to shape your fantasy fortunes.

As I did last week, I’m splitting out my must starts, favorable streaming options, and teams I’m staying away from that otherwise might be appealing.

Must Starts:

 DEN vs NYG  (Proj: 8.7 pts)

HOU vs CLE (Proj: 12.3 pts)

JAX vs LAR (Proj: 12.4 pts)

Streamers I Like:

ATL vs MIA (Proj: 5.0 pts) The Model doesn’t seem to agree on this one, but the Dolphins are quickly becoming a “must start against” offense after surrendering double digit fantasy points to D/STs in three consecutive weeks. Atlanta hasn’t put up flashy fantasy scoring numbers this year, but they’re giving up just under 20 PPG to opponents, are fresh off a bye (at home), and could potentially have Vic Beasley back in the pass rush.

NE @ NYJ (Proj: 7.7 pts): The way this season has gone for the Patriots defensively, this might be my biggest stretch of the season. Even though the Jets sit at a surprising 3-2, I’m calling this division matchup to be the true turning point in the season for the Patriots defense after showing signs of life against a potent Tampa Bay pass offense last Thursday night. If the Patriots fall to 3-3 this week, somebody won’t be walking out of that locker room alive on Sunday afternoon, and Bill Belichick will certainly have something to do with it.

TEN vs IND (Proj: 5.5): Alright, we hit on the Titans last week (11.0 pts @ MIA), so let’s keep it rolling against Indy on MNF. The Colts have been the top benefactor to opposing D/STs this season allowing 13.8 FPPG. Although Model 284’s FPAE metric would suggest starting QB’s and WR’s against Tennessee, something tells me this will be a snoozer, especially if the Titans are without Marcus Mariota for a second straight week.For what it’s worth, I’m rolling Tennessee in all three of my fantasy leagues – that’s not to say I think they’re the best option there is, but I like the matchup and can’t look past their upcoming schedule that’s only complicated by the bye in Week 8 (@CLE, BYE, vs BAL, vs CIN).

Steer Clear:

BAL vs CHI (Proj: 7.6 pts)

MIN vs GB (Proj: 7.3 pts)

KC vs PIT (Proj: 8.4 pts)


1Jaguars D/STvs. Rams12.4
2Texans D/STvs. Browns12.3
3Packers D/ST@ Vikings9.5
4Broncos D/STvs. Giants8.7
5Chiefs D/STvs. Steelers8.4
6Lions D/ST@ Saints8.0
7Panthers D/STvs. Eagles7.9
8Chargers D/ST@ Raiders7.8
9Giants D/ST@ Broncos7.7
10Patriots D/ST@ Jets7.7
11Ravens D/STvs. Bears7.6
1249ers D/ST@ Redskins7.3
13Vikings D/STvs. Packers7.3
14Redskins D/STvs. 49ers6.8
15Rams D/ST@ Jaguars6.7
16Colts D/ST@ Titans6.1
17Buccaneers D/ST@ Cardinals5.8
18Eagles D/ST@ Panthers5.7
19Raiders D/STvs. Chargers5.7
20Titans D/STvs. Colts5.5
21Cardinals D/STvs. Buccaneers5.3
22Bears D/ST@ Ravens5.2
23Dolphins D/ST@ Falcons5.2
24Falcons D/STvs. Dolphins5.0
25Jets D/STvs. Patriots4.8
26Steelers D/ST@ Chiefs4.5
27Saints D/STvs. Lions1.1
28Browns D/ST@ Texans0.8