QB Fantasy Projections – Week 6

Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 6 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 6 Projections

Deshaun Watson lit it up again last week with 35.5 points against the Chiefs and continued his historic run. Not every week will be a 30-point game for Watson, but if someone was going to do it, he’s as likely as anyone. He will be playing at home against the Cleveland Garbage Cans as a 9.5 point favorite. As a result of his hot streak and favorable matchup, Watson comes in as our 4th QB this week with 20.07 projected points.

It may be time to permanently devote a portion of this article each week to Alex Smith. After lighting up a top end Houston defense last week, Smith remains the highest scoring, and most interesting QB in fantasy football this year. This week will be another test against the Steelers, whose defense is much better than they get credit for (-2.9 FPAE vs QBs ). The model expects him to be solid again with a projection of 19.02 points (QB8). This seems like a reasonable spot as Smith showed last week that he could handle a tough matchup.

Carson Wentz absolutely picked apart Arizona last week in a 4-touchdown performance. This week he will have to go to Carolina to play the Panthers on a short week, who look like the defense that went to the Super Bowl not so long ago. Wentz has gotten it done against some good defenses this year, but he is still young and plays on a team that has been inconsistent in the past. QB12 (17.15 points) is where our model has this sophomore gunslinger this week. I would take him over any likely waiver wire QBs this week, but, be warned, one throw could be the difference between a good or bad week for Wentz.

RkPlayerTeamOppPredicted
Points
1Matt RyanATLMIA20.22
2Kirk CousinsWSHSF20.16
3Drew BreesNODET20.12
4Deshaun WatsonHOUCLE20.07
5Aaron RodgersGBMIN19.37
6Cam NewtonCARPHI19.28
7Tom BradyNENYJ19.27
8Alex SmithKCPIT19.02
9Jameis WinstonTBARI17.82
10Derek CarrOAKLAC17.54
11Trevor SiemianDENNYG17.48
12Carson WentzPHICAR17.15
13Matthew StaffordDETNO16.93
14Marcus MariotaTENIND16.66
15Jacoby BrissettINDTEN16.20
16Case KeenumMINGB15.78
17Blake BortlesJACLAR15.61
18Carson PalmerARITB15.21
19Philip RiversLACOAK15.14
20Ben RoethlisbergerPITKC13.75
21Joe FlaccoBALCHI13.49
22Josh McCownNYJNE13.38
23Jared GoffLARJAC13.37
24Jay CutlerMIAATL13.03
25Eli ManningNYGDEN12.96
26Brian HoyerSFWSH12.74