An underrated aspect of Fantasy Football is a player’s consistency (or weekly reliability). Amari Cooper and Demaryius Thomas have both averaged 9.14 fantasy points per game over their past thirty games. However, they took different paths to get there, with Demaryius performing more consistently, but Cooper having higher weekly upside. Understanding your player’s consistency is important when weighing your lineup’s overall safety and upside. If you can afford to take on the risk of a more volatile player, Cooper is a better choice, but if you simply need 8-10 points to secure a win, plug in Demaryius. With this framework, we looked at the top ranked fantasy players’ prior 30 games to paint a picture of their recent fantasy production and consistency. In the article below, we look at the Quarterback position. We already covered Running Backs here and Tight Ends here.

The table below shows summary statistics for each player’s last 30 games, excluding games missed from injury and games outside of Weeks 1-16. For some players, the sample size is smaller because they have yet to play 30 games. The first quartile (1stQ) is the 25th percentile of a player’s scores, meaning that 75% of the player’s past 30 scores are greater than or equal to this value. The third quartile (3rdQ) is the 75th percentile of a player’s score (i.e. 25% of the player’s scores are greater than or equal to this value). Put simply, players with a high 1stQ can be thought of as being more reliable, while player’s with a high 3rdQ deliver more big game outbursts. The CV, or coefficient of variance, is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. This measures the variance of the player’s score relative to their average. The lower the CV, the more consistent the player has been.

Quarterbacks

As QBs are the highest scoring position group, it can be important to identify consistent gunslingers. While Aaron Rodgers is universally the top-ranked quarterback across most fantasy rankings, Tom Brady bests Rodgers in all of the marks listed below over their last 30 games. Brady was an absolute stud last year in his “F Rodger Goodell Tour” but keep in mind that Rodgers’s past 30 games include the worst statistical stretch of his career in 2015. At his best, Rodgers has proven himself the league’s top fantasy quarterback, but Brady may not be as far behind as the rest of the fantasy world believes. If you don’t believe in the whole 40-year-old QB free fall, Brady could be a great option.

If you’re looking for a player that can offer you a high floor and solid consistency a little further down the board, look no further than Andrew Luck. Everyone has a slightly different opinion on where Luck fits in the QB rankings, and the lingering concern that he may miss the first game or two due to injury isn’t doing anything to help. Luck scored a solid 15.4 and 0.38 in 1stQ and CV, respectively. He hasn’t been doing it for only 30 games either – Luck has only finished outside the top 5 fantasy QBs once in his career (his injury-shortened 2016 season).  Despite these impressive numbers, you may be surprised to learn that he can be had as late as the 8th or 9th QB in many leagues. It’s not uncommon for him to go more than three full rounds after the likes of Matt Ryan. Dak Prescott also comes out favorably in these numbers, though he’ll have to prove it over more than 15 games before he is being drafted in the range of Rodgers and Brady.