An underrated aspect of Fantasy Football is a player’s consistency (or weekly reliability). Amari Cooper and Demaryius Thomas have both averaged 9.14 fantasy points per game over their past thirty games. However, they took different paths to get there, with Demaryius performing more consistently, but Cooper having higher weekly upside. Understanding your player’s consistency is important when weighing your lineup’s overall safety and upside. If you can afford to take on the risk of a more volatile player, Cooper is a better choice, but if you simply need 8-10 points to secure a win, plug in Demaryius. With this framework, we looked at the top ranked fantasy players’ prior 30 games to paint a picture of their recent fantasy production and consistency. In the article below, we look at the Wide Receiver position. We already covered Running Backs here, Tight Ends here, and Quarterbacks here.

The table below shows summary statistics for each player’s last 30 games, excluding games missed from injury and games outside of Weeks 1-16. For some players, the sample size is smaller because they have yet to play 30 games. The first quartile (1stQ) is the 25th percentile of a player’s scores, meaning that 75% of the player’s past 30 scores are greater than or equal to this value. The third quartile (3rdQ) is the 75th percentile of a player’s score (i.e. 25% of the player’s scores are greater than or equal to this value). Put simply, players with a high 1stQ can be thought of as being more reliable, while player’s with a high 3rdQ deliver more big game outbursts. The CV, or coefficient of variance, is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. This measures the variance of the player’s score relative to their average. The lower the CV, the more consistent the player has been.

Wide Receivers

If you’re like me, you have been searching high and low for any guidance that can help with the recurring Antonio Brown–Julio Jones–Odell Beckham debate. AB seems to be the consensus #1, and rightfully so, as his last four finishes in PPR are: WR1, WR1, WR1, WR3. However, this consistency data suggests he may not be the clear-cut top choice. With a CV of 0.56, OBJ edges out both AB (0.61) and Julio (0.63). A lead that slight isn’t enough to make a strong case for him, but luckily the party doesn’t stop there for OBJ. The 1stQ (“floor”) for Beckham was a full 1.7 points ahead of Julio, and 2.5 ahead of Brown. In addition to the high floor, Odell still managed a 3rdQ (“ceiling”) that was 2.1 ahead of Julio and only 0.3 behind Brown. With all that put together, the case can be made for Odell as the top WR for 2017. Let’s hope his ankle injury doesn’t slow him down too much…

I dug through this data in search of something to tip me off to a big time sleeper I had somehow managed to overlook. Imagine my surprise when the player that stuck out most was a near consensus top 6 receiver. Everyone knows that Jordy Nelson puts up great numbers, but I’ve heard little talk about him as a top-3 fantasy receiver this year.  However, this data suggests Nelson belongs in that conversation. Nelson’s mean score (14.1) is right in the mix with all three of the big names, and his CV (0.53) and 1stQ (8.9) are on par with OBJ. He isn’t quite on Odell’s level in 3rdQ, but he still manages to match Julio with a very solid 17.7. It’s not hard to make a case for Jordy as a top-3 WR this year, and I’d consider him an excellent value at the end of the first round. Lastly, these numbers remind us that Alshon Jeffery is, in fact, alive and that he is pretty darn good when he can stay on the field. If Wentz can keep Jeffery supplied with accurate targets, Alshon could return great value on his 4th round ADP.