An underrated aspect of Fantasy Football is a player’s consistency (or weekly reliability). Amari Cooper and Demaryius Thomas have both averaged 9.14 fantasy points per game over their past thirty games. However, they took different paths to get there, with Demaryius performing more consistently, but Cooper having higher weekly upside. Understanding your player’s consistency is important when weighing your lineup’s overall safety and upside. If you can afford to take on the risk of a more volatile player, Cooper is a better choice, but if you simply need 8-10 points to secure a win, plug in Demaryius. With this framework, we looked at the top ranked fantasy players’ prior 30 games to paint a picture of their recent fantasy production and consistency. In the article below, we look at the Running Back position.

The table below shows summary statistics for each player’s last 30 games, excluding games missed from injury and games outside of Weeks 1-16. For some players, the sample size is smaller because they have yet to play 30 games. The first quartile (Q1) is the 25th percentile of a player’s scores, meaning that 75% of the player’s past 30 scores are greater than or equal to this value. The third quartile (Q3) is the 75th percentile of a player’s score (i.e. 25% of the player’s scores are greater than or equal to this value). Put simply, players with a high Q1 can be thought of as being more reliable, while player’s with a high Q3 deliver more big game outbursts. The CV, or coefficient of variance, is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. This measures the variance of the player’s score relative to their average. The lower the CV, the more consistent the player has been.

Running Backs

As we all know, Ezekiel Elliott was a fantasy beast last year, but he was also extremely consistent in his week-to-week scoring, as he had the lowest CV among RBs at 0.39. Le’Veon Bell has been less consistent than Zeke (though Zeke has a smaller sample), but Le’Veon has the highest Q3 score at 23.17 (i.e. in 25% of his prior 30 games he has scored 23.17 or more), suggesting that his top performances are more explosive than the rest of the pack. Many experts’ top-ranked player, David Johnson, has a significantly higher CV and lower average than Le’Veon, but it is important to note that those numbers include the very beginning of Johnson’s career when he was a 3rd string RB. When Johnson’s numbers are adjusted to only include his one full year as a starter, he turns into an absolute star: 21.4 mean, 15.7 Q1, 28.8 Q3, and 0.35 CV, all of which would rank 1st among RBs. As impressive as those numbers are, it’s always important to remember that anyone can have a single good season (cough Peyton Hillis), and numbers tend to smooth out as the sample grows – whether that be due to injuries or just year-to-year changes. Though, there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about with DJ.