The article below gives our models’ predictions for the final game of the 2017 NFL season, Super Bowl 52. For more detailed examples of how to interpret our models, see last week’s article. Note that all of our numbers adjust for the fact that the game is at a neutral site.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Super Bowl 52 →

The article below gives our models’ predictions for the Conference Championship matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Conference Championships →

The article below gives our models’ predictions for playoff matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Wild Card Round →

After an otherwise forgettable first few weeks, this year’s NFL Playoffs were capped off by the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, led by the league’s undisputed G.O.A.T, better known as Tom Brady. Facing a 25 point deficit part way through the third quarter, the legacy of the Brady-Belichick era was put on the line, and the light at the end of the tunnel was looking brighter and brighter for Roger Goodell. Little did he know, that light was a reflection beaming off of Brady’s fifth Super Bowl ring, and he’d soon be on the field coughing up the Lombardi trophy to the team he’s conspired against for the past several seasons. Although he dodged the bullet last year when the Broncos knocked the Patriots out in the AFC Championship Game, the four-game suspension he imposed on Brady to begin the year proved to only fuel the fire in the Patriots’ season of vengeance on the commissioner. Although our Models didn’t contain a variable of this nature, 5 of them correctly predicted the Patriots to beat the Falcons and our spread model had them winning by 9. For the playoffs as a whole, we had two models finish 10-1 (only missing the DAL/GB game) and our average Model finished 9-2. See the tables below for our predictions for all of this year’s games.
Continue reading 2016 NFL Playoffs Recap →

This will be the 7th Super Bowl that the Brady-Belichick Patriots have played. While everyone remembers that they are 4-2 in Super Bowls, with both losses coming at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants, we took a quick look at other takeaways from those 6 games. Continue reading A Look at the Brady-Belichick Super Bowls →

We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. So far this postseason, our average probabilities have picked 8/10 games correctly, and Models 2 and 3 have been the most accurate individual models, both going 9 for 10.
Continue reading 2016 Super Bowl Predictions →

In the two conference championship games on Sunday, our average probabilities went 1-1, correctly picking the Falcons (57%), but missing the Steelers (55%), to bring the average probability record for the playoffs to 8-2. Models 2 and 3 remained the most accurate, as they each had the Falcons winning (78% and 75%, respectively) and the Patriots winning (61% and 59%, respectively) to bring their records to 9-1 for the playoffs as a whole. Model 5 also went 2-0 this weekend, and improved to 8-2 for the playoffs. Our spread missed the Falcons (had ATL winning by only 3 points), but correctly predicted that the Patriots would cover (had NE winning by 7).  Check back later this week for our Super Bowl predictions!
Continue reading 2016 NFL Championship Round Recap →

We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. Our models consider many different metrics, such as turnovers, first downs, points scored, pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as a few metrics that we have created ourselves. Beyond these statistics, some models consider factors such as “did a team make the playoffs last year?” and “how far is the away team traveling?” See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. So far this postseason, our average probabilities have picked 7/8 winners correctly, and Models 2 and 3 have been the most accurate – also going 7 for 8.
Continue reading 2016 NFL Championship Game Predictions →

In the second round, our average probabilities went 3-1, and all models individually were either 3-1 or 2-2. Model 1 was the only one to correctly pick the Packers over the Cowboys. For the playoffs as a whole, Models 2 and 3 are performing best, as they have correctly picked 7 of the 8 games, while Model 6 is performing worst, only picking 5 of 8 games correctly. The average probabilities are also 7-1, only missing the Packers/Cowboys game. Click here to see all of our predictions from the past weekend. Check back later this week for our Conference Championship game predictions!
Continue reading 2016 NFL Divisional Round Recap →

We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. Our models consider many different metrics, such as turnovers, first downs, points scored, pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as a few metrics that we have created ourselves. Beyond these statistics, some models consider factors such as “did a team make the playoffs last year?” and “how far is the away team traveling?” See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. The article below focuses on the four divisional round matchups for the coming weekend, but a breakdown of predictions for the entire 2016 NFL Playoffs can be found here, and our predictions from round 1 are here, where our average probabilities correctly predicted all four winners.
Continue reading 2016 NFL Divisional Round Predictions →