The probabilities for our second round predictions were generated from a combination of models that are built on team and player level data from the regular season. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued. For more information on our modeling techniques check out our methodologies page.
Category Archives: Basketball
My Model Monday: NBA & NHL Pythagorean Wins
With the NBA and NHL playoffs in full swing, it gives us a good chance to look at which teams over/underachieved during the regular season using Pythagorean Win Expectation, and, in turn, what teams could exceed expectations in the playoffs. Continue reading My Model Monday: NBA & NHL Pythagorean Wins
2018 NBA Playoff Bracket
Below is our projected bracket for the 2018 NBA playoffs. These probabilities were generated from a combination of models that are built on data from the regular season. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued (e.g., the Boston Celtics). Continue reading 2018 NBA Playoff Bracket
March Madness 2018 Recap
Here is a quick recap of how our models performed in the 2018 NCAA Tournament. At the bottom of the article, you can find links to all of our content and predictions from this year. Continue reading March Madness 2018 Recap
My Model Monday: NBA Draft Scouting Text Analysis
With March Madness just wrapping up, the natural next step in the basketball calendar is to turn to the NBA Draft. At Model 284, we have created a number of different models projecting college basketball players in the NBA; these include: our Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) which attempts to predict overall NBA ability on a scale of 0-100, Similarity Scores that capture style of play, and lastly, a Role Probability Model which puts a probability that each player ends up in a certain role in the NBA (All-Star, Starter/Sixth Man, Bench, or out of the league). One idea which has come up repeatedly in our draft analysis is incorporating scouting or subjective analysis into our draft models. Rather than using a rubric of someone’s scouting grades, I wanted to do a text analysis of scouting reports already written. Since DraftExpress recently folded and moved to the dark side with ESPN Insider (probably a smart business decision), I used NBADraft.net. Continue reading My Model Monday: NBA Draft Scouting Text Analysis
Model 284 Podcast: Final Four and Coach Koz Interview
On the fourth episode of the Model 284 Podcast, we dig into our model’s predictions for the final four and we are joined by St. Olaf Men’s Basketball Coach Dan Kosmoski to talk all things basketball, including his perspective on how the game has changed over the years, his coaching strategies, and more.
Listen on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/model-284-podcast/id1356851364?mt=2
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Final Four Predictions | March Madness 2018
The article below provides our predictions for Final Four games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
- 2018 Elite 8 Predictions
- 2018 Sweet 16 Predictions
- Recap of Model Performance in 2017
- Historical Model Performance and Brackets
- Background on Win Probability Models
Continue reading Final Four Predictions | March Madness 2018
My Model Monday: Biggest March Madness Upsets
This year’s NCAA tournament brought some crazy upsets, including the first-ever 9 vs. 11 Elite Eight matchup and first ever 16 seed to win a game, which is being talked about as one of the biggest upsets in sports history. In today’s My Model Monday, I see if the numbers back up that claim, or if there are other dogs that give UMBC a run for their money, and see if there is anything we can learn from the teams that won. Continue reading My Model Monday: Biggest March Madness Upsets
Elite 8 Predictions | March Madness
The article below provides our predictions for Elite 8 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
Model 284 Podcast: Sweet 16 Matchups
In the third episode of the Model 284 Podcast, Sam Walczak and Marc Richards recap this past weekend of madness, go through our models’ predictions for the Sweet 16 matchups, and cover our probabilities for each team moving forward in the tournament.
Listen on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/model-284-podcast/id1356851364?mt=2
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