The table below contains our game-by-game predictions for the 2018 NBA Playoffs, which we will update daily with predictions for each day’s games. The table includes the Vegas Spread, our predicted spread, Vegas Total, and our predicted total. The Vegas spread and 284 Spread are both shown from the perspective of the home team – meaning negative numbers indicate that the home team is favored. More detail on our how our models work can be found here. Also be sure to check out our predictions for every series as a whole.
Continue reading 2018 NBA Playoff Game Predictions
Category Archives: 2018 NBA Playoffs
2018 NBA Finals
Through three rounds, we have gone 10/14 in series predictions. Two of these incorrect picks have come from series involving the Cavaliers. As we have seen in prior years, our models have a hard time assessing the Cleveland Cavaliers because they consistently under perform in the regular season. In the Championship round, our models are siding with the Golden State Warriors. Four of our five models picked the Warriors to win, and the average probability across the five predictions is 0.69. We will continue to update the table below following each game in the series!
2018 NBA Conference Finals
The probabilities for our second round predictions were generated from four unique statistical models that are built on team and player level data from the regular season. Our prediction for each series comes from computing the average of these four models. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued. For more information on our modeling techniques check out our methodologies page. Continue reading 2018 NBA Conference Finals
2018 NBA Playoffs Second Round
The probabilities for our second round predictions were generated from a combination of models that are built on team and player level data from the regular season. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued. For more information on our modeling techniques check out our methodologies page.
My Model Monday: NBA & NHL Pythagorean Wins
With the NBA and NHL playoffs in full swing, it gives us a good chance to look at which teams over/underachieved during the regular season using Pythagorean Win Expectation, and, in turn, what teams could exceed expectations in the playoffs. Continue reading My Model Monday: NBA & NHL Pythagorean Wins
2018 NBA Playoff Bracket
Below is our projected bracket for the 2018 NBA playoffs. These probabilities were generated from a combination of models that are built on data from the regular season. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued (e.g., the Boston Celtics). Continue reading 2018 NBA Playoff Bracket