Here is a quick recap of how our models performed in the 2018 NCAA Tournament. At the bottom of the article, you can find links to all of our content and predictions from this year. Continue reading March Madness 2018 Recap
Category Archives: 2018 Tournament
Final Four Predictions | March Madness 2018
The article below provides our predictions for Final Four games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
- 2018 Elite 8 Predictions
- 2018 Sweet 16 Predictions
- Recap of Model Performance in 2017
- Historical Model Performance and Brackets
- Background on Win Probability Models
Continue reading Final Four Predictions | March Madness 2018
Elite 8 Predictions | March Madness
The article below provides our predictions for Elite 8 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
Model 284 Podcast: Sweet 16 Matchups
In the third episode of the Model 284 Podcast, Sam Walczak and Marc Richards recap this past weekend of madness, go through our models’ predictions for the Sweet 16 matchups, and cover our probabilities for each team moving forward in the tournament.
Listen on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/model-284-podcast/id1356851364?mt=2
Podcast (model-284-podcast): Play in new window | Download
My Model Monday: Are You Beating the Model?
The first weekend of March Madness 2018 is in the books, and it was wild. When all was said and done, the same number of 11-seeds made the Sweet 16 as 1-seeds. Half of teams seeded 1-3 were knocked out in these first two rounds. And of course, the tournament saw a 1-seed exit in the first round for the first time ever (at least in the men’s tournament). It’s hard to imagine anyone’s bracket coming out of a weekend like this looking good. How bad was it? I dug into Model 284’s own March Madness contest to find out.
Continue reading My Model Monday: Are You Beating the Model?
Sweet 16 Predictions | March Madness 2018
The article below provides our predictions for all Sweet 16 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
Round 2 Predictions | March Madness 2018
The article below provides our predictions for all 2nd Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
Round 1 Predictions | March Madness 2018
The article below provides our predictions for all 1st Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
Bracket Analysis | March Madness 2018
The article below discusses how our models view this year’s tournament field, and which teams are most likely to make a deep run. This is done in context of 60,000 simulations1 of this year’s tournament, which were performed using win probability predictions from our models. That simulation ultimately provides probabilities of each team advancing to the Sweet 16, Final Four, etc. Note that play-in game teams are subject to change. Continue reading Bracket Analysis | March Madness 2018
Model 284 Bracket | March Madness 2018
Below is our Model 284 consensus bracket for the 2018 tournament. As you will see from our Round 1 Predictions and tournament simulation results, we do not necessarily pick the model’s predicted winner for every single game, but rather using our predictions weighed against popular public picks and focusing on our numbers for which teams are most likely to make it out of each region / sub-region.
If you want to hear more on what our model’s predictions, we discussed the bracket in detail on this week’s episode of the Model 284 podcast.