Team Defense Projections – Week 14

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 14 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

If you are reading this (seriously though, anybody out there?), I will assume that you are either A) in the playoffs B) trying to avoid whatever punishment your league’s last place finisher must endure or C) you take pride in your team even when it no longer matters (shoutout to Timothy Ewald).  Whatever the situation, it’s a very thin week for favorable D/ST matchups, and it comes at no worse time than the first week of the playoffs. Nonetheless, there are a few solid streaming options you can run with, so here we go with Week 14:

Must Starts:

NE @ MIA (Proj: 11.8 pts)

CIN vs CHI (Proj: 7.9 pts)

MIN @ CAR (Proj: 5.7 pts)

Streamers I Like:

GB vs CLE (Proj: 11.5 pts): This is the first time I’ve included Green Bay in any of my tiers, and although it brings me pain, their debut comes for no other reason than matching up with the Cleveland Browns this week. In truth, I want nothing more than for the Browns to put a close on the very slight possibility Aaron Rodgers plays in an NFC playoff game in a couple of weeks, but regardless of my desires it should be a pretty ugly, low scoring affair. The marquee Kizer vs Hundley matchup could pay dividends for either defense, but I give the edge to the Pack this week.

NYJ @ DEN (Proj: 10.0  pts) The Denver Broncos have been a sad, sad story this season, and it’s safe to say that Vance Joseph is no longer “having the time of his life”. The Quarterback carousel that continues to waste away a formidable defense has made the Broncos the most forgiving opponent for D/STs this season, allowing an average of 12.8 fantasy points per game and currently riding a streak of EIGHT games giving up double digit fantasy scoring. Wow. Not to mention, they face the Colts and Redskins (both should be very available) for the Weeks 15 and 16, making for a fantastic stream against option for anyone that doesn’t have a locked in D/ST for their championship run.

DET @ TB (Proj: 4.8 pts) Detroit’s defense has certainly regressed since its hot start to the year, but staying in range of a Wild Card spot and facing Jameis Winston who struggles to hold on to the football (shouldn’t have eaten that W) could make for a worthy play this weekend. There are better options out there, but in a thin week consider Detroit as an ok option.

Not Sold:

DEN vs NYJ (Proj: 9.9 pts)

LAC vs WSH (Proj: 9.9 pts)

DAL @ NYG (Proj: 7.2 pts)


1Patriots D/ST@ Dolphins11.8
2Packers D/ST@ Browns11.5
3Jets D/ST@ Broncos10.0
4Broncos D/STvs. Jets9.9
5Chargers D/STvs. Redskins9.9
6Bills D/STvs. Colts9.1
7Seahawks D/st@ Jaguars9.1
8Jaguars D/STvs. Seahawks8.6
9Bears D/ST@ Bengals8.3
10Chiefs D/STvs. Raiders8.1
11Dolphins D/STvs. Patriots8.0
12Bengals D/STvs. Bears7.9
13Browns D/STvs. Packers7.8
14Titans D/ST@ Cardinals7.7
15Cowboys D/ST@ Giants7.2
16Raiders D/ST@ Chiefs7.0
17Steelers D/STvs. Ravens6.7
1849ers D/ST@ Texans6.4
19Redskins D/ST@ Chargers6.0
20Cardinals D/STvs. Titans5.8
21Vikings D/ST@ Panthers5.7
22Panthers D/STvs. Vikings5.6
23Texans D/STvs. 49ers5.4
24Giants D/STvs. Cowboys5.2
25Lions D/ST@ Buccaneers4.8
26Ravens D/ST@ Steelers4.6
27Rams D/STvs. Eagles4.6
28Eagles D/ST@ Rams4.3
29Colts D/ST@ Bills3.9
30Buccaneers D/STvs. Lions3.2
31Saints D/ST@ Falcons2.1
32Falcons D/STvs. Saints1.6