The article below provides our predictions for all Sweet 16 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
- 2018 Round 2 Predictions
- 2018 Round 1 Predictions
- 2018 Full Bracket
- 2018 Bracket Analysis
- Recap of Model Performance in 2017
- Historical Model Performance and Brackets
- Background on Win Probability Models
Win Probability & Spread Predictions
For each game, “Team1 Win Prob” represents our model’s probability that Team1 (the better-seeded team) wins the game. Probabilities below 50 are predictions that Team2 will win the game. The “284 Spread” is our model’s prediction of how many points Team1 will win by (for both Vegas and 284 Spreads, negative values indicate Team1 is favored, while positives indicate Team2 is favored). The “Team1 Cover Prob” is our model’s probability that Team1 covers the Vegas Spread. A Cover Prob below 50 favors Team2 to cover (and above 50 favors Team1 to cover). Note that our 284 Spread and Cover Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one is predicting Team1 covers and the other predicts Team2 covers):
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 1 Win Prob | Vegas Spread | 284 Spread | Team 1 Cover Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Kentucky | 9 Kansas St | 67 | -5.5 | -2.3 | 20 |
| 7 Nevada | 11 Loyola | 78 | -2.5 | -6.3 | 79 |
| 4 Gonzaga | 9 Florida St | 90 | -5.5 | -8.2 | 65 |
| 3 Michigan | 7 TX A&M | 87 | -3 | -5.5 | 56 |
| 1 Villanova | 5 West Va | 62 | -5 | -5.9 | 93 |
| 2 Purdue | 3 TX Tech | 85 | -1.5 | -6.6 | 46 |
| 1 Kansas | 5 Clemson | 69 | -4 | +0.3 | 54 |
| 2 Duke | 11 Syracuse | 69 | -11.5 | -4.8 | 58 |
Over/Under Predictions
For each game, the Vegas Total can be compared to our “284 Total” (our model’s prediction of how many points will be scored in the game) as well as our “Over Prob” (our model’s probability that the game goes over the Vegas Total). An Over Prob prediction below 50 sides with an Under, while a prediction above 50 sides with an Over. Note that our 284 Total and Over Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one is predicting over and the other predicts under):
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Vegas Total | 284Total | Over Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Kentucky | 9 Kansas St | 138.5 | 141.6 | 54 |
| 7 Nevada | 11 Loyola | 143.5 | 152.0 | 89 |
| 4 Gonzaga | 9 Florida St | 154 | 151.1 | 40 |
| 3 Michigan | 7 TX A&M | 134 | 135.8 | 60 |
| 1 Villanova | 5 West Va | 153 | 153.3 | 50 |
| 2 Purdue | 3 TX Tech | 137.5 | 140.7 | 66 |
| 1 Kansas | 5 Clemson | 143 | 147.8 | 71 |
| 2 Duke | 11 Syracuse | 133.5 | 133.4 | 49 |
Simulation Update
The table below displays our updated simulation results for the Sweet 16 moving forward. Each column represents that probability of each team advancing to a given round. For more info on how our simulation works, see this article.
Round 1-2 Recap
Here is how each model’s predictions fared in first and second round games, with spread and total accuracy graded against closing numbers for each game:
- Win Probabilities: 35-13 (73%)
- 284 Spreads: 23-24 (49%)
- Cover Probabilities: 26-21 (55%)
- 284 Totals: 28-20 (58%)
- Over Probabilities: 26-22 (54%)
76 thoughts on “Sweet 16 Predictions | March Madness 2018”
Comments are closed.