Man vs Model – NFL Week 2

Football, Hammer the Over

Welcome back to another installment of Man vs Model. Last week I was 1-1 against the model with the under hitting easily in the Baltimore-Cincinnati game and the 49ers letting me down in a big way in a blowout loss to Carolina. All things considered, I’d say that’s not a bad start to my lifelong battle against the machine, but I’m not a huge fan of the idea of tying in general. Sports, and really anything in life, shouldn’t end in ties. Just defeats the purpose competing in the first place. We play until there’s a winner, or until they drag us off the field kicking, screaming, and covered in blood. So with that being said, we are gonna change things up a little bit in the format of this blog. First, I’ll be adding another game to my picks against the model. This way there is at least a clear cut winner between me and that cold, heartless machine. Additionally, I will be adding a couple of more picks that I like that aren’t necessarily in contrast to the model. Our numbers are right more than 50% of the time, so it would be foolish of me not to use the model with some of my picks. So without further ado, let’s get into it. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 2 →

Fantasy Points Above Expectation – Week 2

Fantasy Football, Football

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, Miami’s FPAE against QBs is 5.1, meaning that they gave up an average of 5.1 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. We give a full explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values against each position group for Week 2 of 2017 are shown below. These values were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).
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Team Defense Projections – Week 2

Fantasy Football, Football

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 2 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 2 →

Hammer The Over: NFL Week 1 Recap

Hammer the Over

The guys recap the first week of NFL action, cover the Cleveland Indians historic run, and dissect the possibilities of Stephon Marbury returning to the NBA at the age of 40. Minnesota superfan Tom Milne joins the podcast to give a review of the Vikings Monday Night Football win and preview their matchup with the Steelers. Segments include Over of the Week, Unwritten Rules, and Hate it or Love it.

Team Defense Fantasy Projections – Week 1

Fantasy Football

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 1 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

Continue reading Team Defense Fantasy Projections – Week 1 →

Friday Fantasy Preview – Week 1

Fantasy Football

Welcome to Week 1 of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity, then this is the right place for you. In this week’s article, I will discuss some less-obvious players that I love and hate for this week in Fantasy Football (you don’t need me to tell you to play Antonio Brown against the Browns). Continue reading Friday Fantasy Preview – Week 1 →