NHL Draft Model Results 2018 (Preliminary)

Below is results to our (preliminary) NHL Draft Model that uses prospects’ statistical production, physical measurements, and other variables to predict the likelihood that a players assume a specific NHL Role (i.e., First Line / Top Pair, Second / Third Line / 2nd pair defensemen, Fourth Line / Bottom pair defensemen, and Non-NHL player). The model is still being fine-tuned, hence the preliminary results, and an in-depth methodology article will come in the future. In addition to the aforementioned role probabilities, there is also a predicted NHL point per game that is derived from our Hockey Translation Factors.

Brief Intro: The 2018 NHL Draft Role Probability Model uses multinomial logistic regression with four derived classes: First Line / Top Pair, Second / Third Line / 2nd pair defensemen, Fourth Line / Bottom pair defensemen, and Non-NHL player. Key variables considered include:

  • Age
  • Mean Predicted Points Per Game (via Hockey Translation Factors)
  • Percentage of points that were goals
  • Caliber of top league played in
  • Height & weight
  • Position
  • NHL Central Scouting Ranking
  • and more!

Again, check back for a detailed methodology article on the inputs and outputs of this specific draft model, along with more NHL draft content.

Below are results for the top ~250 prospects for the 2018 NHL Draft. Enjoy!

PLAYERPOSNATIONNHL CSS RANK1st LINE/PAIR %2nd/3rd
LINE/PAIR %
4th LINE/PAIR %NON NHL %PREDICTED
PPG
Andrei SvechnikovWRussia157.4%35.8%4.2%2.7%0.79
Rasmus DahlinDSweden151.5%39.5%5.8%3.1%0.58
Jesperi KotkaniemiCFinland625.9%32.5%22.8%18.8%0.60
Adam BoqvistDSweden225.6%46.3%8.5%19.5%0.37
Filip ZadinaWCzech Republic318.0%52.7%11.8%17.5%0.60
Evan BouchardDCanada414.6%45.2%24.5%15.7%0.39
Noah DobsonDCanada513.1%43.9%26.7%16.3%0.39
Joseph VelenoCCanada812.6%38.5%34.5%14.4%0.56
Vitali KravtsovWRussia311.4%43.9%17.7%26.9%0.53
Adam GinningDSweden510.2%22.5%26.3%41.0%0.24
Rasmus SandinDSweden1110.0%22.4%22.3%45.4%0.34
Isac LundestromCSweden89.2%22.6%31.8%36.4%0.46
Quinn HughesDUnited States67.0%35.2%28.4%29.4%0.30
Oliver WahlstromWUnited States76.4%57.2%22.4%13.9%0.53
Jake WiseCUnited States385.5%22.0%33.2%39.4%0.55
Ty SmithDCanada145.1%25.7%26.0%43.1%0.40
Jared McIsaacDCanada135.1%21.9%33.7%39.3%0.33
Milos RomanCSlovakia414.7%8.3%15.2%71.9%0.49
Jacob OlofssonCSweden94.6%15.9%33.4%46.0%0.39
Filip JohanssonDSweden104.6%12.7%21.2%61.6%0.25
Alexander AlexeyevDRussia224.4%15.0%30.9%49.7%0.36
Mattias SamuelssonDUnited States213.9%14.9%34.3%46.9%0.28
Bode WildeDUnited States173.9%13.5%24.6%60.0%0.27
Joel FarabeeWUnited States123.9%32.3%27.0%36.8%0.64
Ryan MerkleyDCanada453.8%18.0%22.4%55.8%0.46
Filip HallanderCSweden133.8%13.0%25.4%57.8%0.42
Calen AddisonDCanada303.7%18.6%21.8%56.0%0.39
Paul CotterCUnited States1123.5%13.7%28.8%54.0%0.52
Nils LundkvistDSweden143.2%8.3%10.8%77.7%0.24
Niklas NordgrenWFinland213.0%18.1%13.0%65.9%0.56
Barrett HaytonCCanada93.0%19.5%38.9%38.6%0.37
Adam SamuelssonDUnited States772.6%7.4%36.4%53.5%0.21
Linus KarlssonCSweden392.5%7.4%8.3%81.8%0.44
Brady TkachukWUnited States22.5%60.4%25.1%12.0%0.39
Ivan MorozovCRussia192.4%15.3%20.4%61.8%0.45
Libor ZabranskyDCzech Republic1152.4%3.6%6.8%87.2%0.27
Akil ThomasCCanada152.4%14.3%26.5%56.8%0.45
Jett WooDUnited States282.3%9.3%28.6%59.7%0.25
K'Andre MillerDUnited States232.3%9.0%25.6%63.0%0.26
Martin KautWCzech Republic42.3%34.5%16.5%46.7%0.40
Jonny TychonickDCanada362.1%10.4%18.3%69.2%0.36
Danila ZhuravlyovDRussia502.0%2.7%3.4%91.9%0.31
Martin FehervaryDSlovakia152.0%8.6%23.2%66.2%0.21
Jack DruryCUnited States271.9%9.6%25.8%62.6%0.44
Alexander SteevesCUnited States861.9%8.3%21.4%68.3%0.50
Mathias Emilio PettersenCNorway1201.8%8.7%24.0%65.4%0.45
Lukas WernblomCSweden411.8%6.6%12.7%78.9%0.42
Wyatte WylieDCanada711.8%6.5%20.0%71.8%0.28
Scott PerunovichDUnited States1021.8%9.8%12.5%75.9%0.34
David GustafssonCSweden241.8%5.6%15.0%77.6%0.34
Rasmus KupariCFinland111.8%6.9%12.6%78.7%0.34
Toni UtunenDFinland641.7%2.1%4.0%92.2%0.26
Alexander KhovanovCRussia431.7%9.5%21.8%66.9%0.44
Ondrej BuchtelaDCzech Republic431.7%6.4%22.4%69.5%0.20
Jay O'BrienCUnited States321.7%11.0%16.0%71.3%0.44
Slava DeminDUnited States401.6%7.1%18.0%73.2%0.27
Kevin BahlDCanada291.6%4.5%26.8%67.0%0.16
Ty EmbersonDCanada421.6%6.7%19.8%71.9%0.24
Santeri SalmelaDFinland571.6%2.4%7.1%88.9%0.20
Patrick KhodorenkoCUnited States1271.6%8.6%33.3%56.5%0.37
Grigori DenisenkoWRussia71.5%37.0%27.1%34.4%0.44
Andrej KukucaCSlovakia841.5%5.1%10.5%82.9%0.42
Benoit-Olivier GroulxCCanada201.5%8.9%27.9%61.7%0.37
Sean DurziDCanada371.4%5.0%17.0%76.5%0.22
Nicolas BeaudinDCanada311.4%5.7%14.4%78.5%0.28
Nico GrossDSwitzerland561.4%6.3%12.8%79.5%0.27
Xavier BouchardDCanada741.4%4.6%15.3%78.7%0.27
Marcus WestfaltCSweden371.4%4.0%13.1%81.5%0.32
Danila GalenyukDRussia231.4%5.3%19.3%74.1%0.17
Jachym KondelikCCzech Republic481.4%5.6%28.0%64.9%0.36
Kyle ToppingCCanada591.3%6.4%23.9%68.3%0.41
Ty DellandreaCCanada251.3%7.3%21.6%69.7%0.37
Jakub LaukoCCzech Republic201.3%3.8%7.0%87.9%0.34
Nathan DunkleyCCanada1091.3%6.4%21.9%70.4%0.40
Joey KeaneDUnited States1111.3%4.9%14.2%79.6%0.24
Matthew StruthersCCanada1241.3%5.6%22.5%70.6%0.40
Allan McShaneCCanada501.3%6.5%23.3%68.9%0.38
Spencer StastneyDUnited States931.3%5.8%15.4%77.5%0.25
Jack McBainCCanada351.2%6.7%22.2%69.9%0.38
Mikhail BitsadzeCRussia261.2%2.6%5.8%90.4%0.36
Axel AnderssonDSweden271.2%5.3%13.7%79.8%0.22
Tim BerniDSwitzerland621.2%5.4%12.1%81.3%0.25
Dmitri SemykinDRussia251.2%4.4%15.1%79.3%0.16
Jordan HarrisDUnited States441.2%4.7%12.9%81.2%0.21
Michael CallahanDUnited States1451.1%4.7%12.7%81.5%0.24
Alexander RomanovDRussia1151.1%4.9%12.2%81.9%0.22
Aidan DudasCCanada681.1%7.3%16.9%74.7%0.42
Michael KesselringDUnited States751.1%3.9%11.0%84.0%0.22
Ryan McLeodCCanada161.1%6.4%25.4%67.1%0.32
Jonathan GranstromDSweden921.1%3.1%6.3%89.5%0.23
Oskar BackCSweden181.1%6.7%27.8%64.4%0.30
Krystof HrabikCCzech Republic291.0%2.7%10.2%86.1%0.25
Michal PupakDSlovakia1041.0%1.4%3.7%93.9%0.19
Jaxon NelsonWUnited States1411.0%16.1%20.9%62.0%0.48
Dominik BokkWGermany121.0%17.8%11.4%69.8%0.41
Jacob Bernard-DockerDCanada331.0%4.6%9.5%84.9%0.24
Peter StratisDCanada1390.9%3.4%10.1%85.6%0.20
Giovanni VallatiDCanada570.9%3.3%9.9%85.9%0.20
Yevgeni KalabushkinDRussia720.9%3.3%10.0%85.8%0.20
Connor RobertsCCanada1460.9%4.4%24.7%70.0%0.30
Filip KralDCzech Republic540.9%1.4%2.0%95.8%0.16
Jonatan BerggrenWSweden300.9%11.4%10.5%77.2%0.44
John St. IvanyDUnited States1190.9%2.6%10.9%85.6%0.16
Cole KrygierDUnited States1490.8%2.8%9.7%86.7%0.18
Vladislav YeryomenkoDBelarus730.8%3.0%8.0%88.2%0.20
Gavin HainCUnited States1040.8%6.2%17.5%75.4%0.31
Pavel ShenCRussia320.8%5.0%14.1%80.0%0.34
Cameron HillisCCanada670.8%4.7%12.0%82.4%0.39
Alexander ZhabreyevCFinland630.8%5.8%10.9%82.6%0.40
Alexander ZhabreyevCRussia630.8%5.8%10.9%82.6%0.40
Blade JenkinsCUnited States260.8%5.2%21.6%72.4%0.30
Merrick RipponDCanada850.8%2.7%8.9%87.6%0.17
Xavier BernardDCanada760.8%3.5%10.5%85.3%0.23
Bogdan ZhilyakovDRussia450.8%3.2%8.8%87.3%0.19
Curtis HallCUnited States600.8%4.1%18.0%77.2%0.32
Fredrik GranbergDSweden490.7%2.4%10.8%86.0%0.12
David LiljaCSweden470.7%3.2%6.0%90.1%0.33
William EnnisDCanada1160.7%2.1%9.3%87.9%0.15
Vladislav SyominDRussia780.7%2.0%10.1%87.3%0.10
Mac HollowellDCanada1180.7%2.8%7.5%88.9%0.19
Kristian TanusCFinland350.7%5.2%13.3%80.9%0.36
Tyler MaddenCUnited States390.7%4.7%8.9%85.7%0.40
Dawson BarteauxDCanada1330.7%2.7%7.0%89.6%0.21
Marco MirandaWSwitzerland1120.7%11.5%24.6%63.1%0.47
Anton MalyshevDRussia600.7%2.7%8.5%88.1%0.16
Caleb EverettDUnited States840.7%2.6%6.5%90.2%0.19
Brandon SaigeonCCanada1470.7%3.7%16.4%79.2%0.31
Daniel KowalczykDCzech Republic770.7%2.2%9.5%87.6%0.10
Phillip SchultzCDenmark1060.7%4.7%16.3%78.3%0.29
Connor CorcoranDCanada1230.7%2.4%6.8%90.1%0.18
Liam FoudyCCanada190.7%4.4%17.1%77.8%0.28
Jan JenikCCzech Republic160.7%5.5%13.3%80.6%0.31
Kristian KovacikCSlovakia760.7%4.5%17.5%77.3%0.30
Boris CesanekDSlovakia960.6%0.7%3.2%95.4%0.07
Carter RobertsonDCanada780.6%2.3%5.8%91.2%0.20
Robert ArrakCFinland1080.6%1.8%5.5%92.1%0.23
Yegor SharangovichCBelarus510.6%3.7%13.5%82.2%0.28
Peetro SeppalaDFinland380.6%2.4%7.6%89.4%0.15
Philipp KurashevCSwitzerland610.6%4.6%15.4%79.4%0.29
Saku VesterinenDFinland1430.6%2.3%7.9%89.1%0.14
Cole FonstadCCanada650.6%3.5%11.0%84.9%0.37
Luka BurzanCCanada910.6%5.2%17.0%77.1%0.32
Jacob PivonkaCUnited States1050.6%4.2%19.4%75.8%0.27
Logan HutskoCUnited States660.6%4.5%12.9%82.0%0.33
Semyon Der-ArguchintsevCRussia820.6%3.3%10.5%85.7%0.37
Alec RegulaDUnited States720.6%2.3%4.7%92.4%0.21
Lucas GustavssonDSweden900.6%1.1%4.7%93.6%0.09
Sean ComrieDCanada1080.6%2.7%5.9%90.9%0.19
Simon JohanssonDSweden880.6%2.2%5.2%92.0%0.19
Mathias LaferriereCCanada1300.6%3.1%11.4%85.0%0.34
Declan ChisholmDCanada520.6%1.9%5.9%91.6%0.16
John LudvigDCanada1370.6%1.8%7.3%90.4%0.12
Riley StottsCCanada510.6%3.6%10.0%85.8%0.33
Chase WoutersCCanada920.6%3.6%13.4%82.4%0.33
Yegor PostnovDRussia790.5%2.3%3.8%93.3%0.21
Davyd BarandunDSwitzerland1030.5%2.2%6.5%90.8%0.08
Kristian ReichelCCzech Republic530.5%1.8%2.6%95.1%0.28
Billy MoskalCCanada990.5%4.0%12.8%82.7%0.31
Pontus EnglundDSweden890.5%1.7%5.5%92.3%0.12
Nikita SolopanovDRussia560.5%2.0%6.1%91.4%0.12
Jacob RagnarssonDSweden440.5%2.6%8.0%88.9%0.15
Brett KempCCanada1280.5%3.0%11.6%84.9%0.31
Christian FeltonDUnited States1380.5%1.6%7.5%90.4%0.08
Ben CopelandCUnited States1260.4%2.9%9.2%87.5%0.31
Gabriel FortierWCanada490.4%10.2%21.9%67.4%0.42
Jesper SellgrenDSweden910.4%1.7%5.2%92.6%0.11
Seth BartonDCanada940.4%2.1%7.0%90.5%0.16
Matej PekarCCzech Republic550.4%2.8%8.0%88.8%0.32
Justin AlmeidaCCanada880.4%3.8%8.9%86.9%0.32
Brendan BudyWCanada1250.4%8.4%15.0%76.1%0.46
Jonathan GrudenWUnited States460.4%9.5%15.2%75.0%0.45
Egor ZamulaDRussia640.4%1.5%4.2%93.9%0.14
Jakub AdamekDCzech Republic940.4%1.1%6.0%92.6%0.05
Albin ErikssonWSweden220.4%8.8%13.3%77.5%0.33
Radim SaldaDCzech Republic700.4%1.5%4.6%93.5%0.10
Peter DiliberatoreDCanada1440.4%2.2%5.6%91.8%0.17
Connor DewarCCanada1170.4%2.7%9.3%87.6%0.29
Otto KivenmakiCFinland1020.4%3.0%5.6%91.0%0.36
Egor SokolovWRussia1070.4%12.2%26.3%61.1%0.35
Curtis DouglasCCanada630.4%1.8%10.7%87.1%0.26
Kristjan KombeCFinland1090.4%1.1%3.3%95.2%0.20
Carl BerglundCSweden530.4%2.8%9.0%87.9%0.26
Ruslan IskhakovWRussia310.4%10.2%10.4%79.1%0.45
Luke HenmanCCanada830.4%2.3%5.4%92.0%0.35
Riley DamianiCCanada1000.4%2.5%7.1%90.0%0.30
Linus NymanWFinland890.4%8.1%10.0%81.5%0.46
Martin BuckoDSlovakia800.3%1.3%4.1%94.3%0.11
Serron NoelWCanada100.3%16.1%32.2%51.4%0.29
Hunter HolmesCCanada1480.3%2.1%9.5%88.0%0.25
Vit SeemannDCzech Republic930.3%1.2%4.3%94.2%0.06
Kirill MarchenkoWRussia170.3%10.8%11.7%77.1%0.41
Patrik SiikanenCFinland700.3%2.7%11.3%85.6%0.20
Patrick GilesCUnited States470.3%2.2%14.7%82.8%0.20
Janis MoserDSwitzerland1110.3%0.4%0.4%98.9%0.08
Martin PospisilWSlovakia1310.3%6.7%16.8%76.2%0.42
Dmitry ZavgorodniyWRussia690.3%9.6%8.8%81.3%0.43
Eric FlorchukCCanada1100.3%1.9%6.3%91.5%0.29
Mitchell HoelscherCCanada620.3%2.1%6.0%91.7%0.27
Aleksi HalmeWFinland1140.3%8.9%17.0%73.8%0.37
Sampo RantaWFinland180.3%10.2%21.0%68.6%0.33
Anderson MacDonaldWCanada1010.2%8.7%21.0%70.1%0.35
Blake McLaughlinWUnited States240.2%8.0%10.3%81.5%0.40
Vladislav KotkovWRussia810.2%7.7%17.7%74.3%0.35
German GrachyovWRussia680.2%6.8%9.2%83.8%0.40
Vojtech KropacekCCzech Republic730.2%0.7%2.5%96.6%0.12
Henrik MalmstromDSweden870.2%0.8%3.5%95.5%0.03
Samuel BittenCCanada1060.2%1.5%5.6%92.7%0.22
Samuel HoudeCCanada1320.2%1.7%6.8%91.3%0.26
Aatu LuusuaniemiWFinland1070.2%7.5%15.5%76.8%0.35
Oliver OkuliarWSlovakia660.2%5.9%9.3%84.7%0.39
Jesse YlonenWFinland280.2%6.9%8.5%84.4%0.37
Nikita RtishchevWRussia850.2%7.0%13.9%79.0%0.33
Emils GegerisWLatvia1050.2%7.0%12.1%80.7%0.33
Nikolai KovalenkoWRussia330.1%6.9%12.3%80.6%0.33
Ivan MuranovCRussia340.1%1.1%4.9%93.9%0.15
Pavel GogolevWRussia790.1%5.3%9.4%85.2%0.35
Isaac JohnsonWUnited States1400.1%5.7%9.3%84.8%0.33
Demetrios KoumontzisWUnited States1360.1%7.5%12.7%79.7%0.33
Jackson PerbixWUnited States960.1%6.0%10.4%83.4%0.32
Justin BrazeauWCanada1420.1%6.9%22.3%70.6%0.28
Michal KvasnicaWCzech Republic400.1%6.5%12.6%80.8%0.30
Danil GizatullinWRussia520.1%5.4%8.9%85.6%0.30
Andrew BruderCCanada1140.1%0.8%3.6%95.6%0.16
Arttu NevasaariWFinland580.1%5.9%8.9%85.0%0.30
Jan KalusWCzech Republic550.1%5.6%11.6%82.7%0.29
Ryan ChyzowskiWCanada950.1%4.8%12.5%82.6%0.28
Riley SutterWCanada800.1%4.8%13.1%82.0%0.26
Cole ReinhardtWCanada1210.1%5.5%15.0%79.5%0.25
Karel PlasekWCzech Republic590.1%2.8%1.3%95.7%0.25
Tyler WeissWUnited States900.1%4.5%6.3%89.2%0.33
Carl JakobssonWSweden420.1%5.2%5.0%89.7%0.30
Demid MansurovWRussia690.1%3.9%7.3%88.7%0.29
Semyon KizimovWRussia970.1%4.3%8.8%86.8%0.29
Jan SirCCzech Republic810.1%0.7%3.3%95.9%0.09
Nando EggenbergerWSwitzerland480.1%2.7%1.7%95.5%0.23
Daniel KurovskyWCzech Republic460.1%5.9%13.2%80.8%0.22
Ryan O'ReillyWUnited States580.1%5.3%10.5%84.1%0.23
Jack JensenWUnited States980.1%5.5%9.7%84.7%0.24
Lenni KillinenWFinland360.1%4.6%8.0%87.4%0.27
Maxim GolodWCanada970.1%3.4%5.7%90.8%0.30
Adam GajarskyWCzech Republic820.1%2.3%2.0%95.6%0.22
Brodi StuartWCanada1290.1%3.8%6.6%89.5%0.28
Robert LynchWUnited States1500.1%3.9%6.1%90.0%0.29
Angus CrookshankWCanada1350.1%4.6%7.3%88.0%0.25
Jackson LeppardWCanada1220.1%3.8%8.5%87.6%0.22
Jermei GerberWSwitzerland1130.1%4.8%5.4%89.7%0.23
Ilya BadaninWRussia1000.0%3.3%6.2%90.4%0.25
Vojtech DobiasWCzech Republic710.0%4.8%9.3%85.9%0.20
Oliver TrueWDenmark1340.0%3.6%8.0%88.4%0.22
Alexei PolodyanWRussia860.0%3.0%4.8%92.1%0.26
Liam KirkWEngland650.0%1.3%0.3%98.4%0.23
Adam KlapkaWCzech Republic830.0%5.2%14.0%80.7%0.13
Justin DucharmeWCanada1030.0%2.9%6.8%90.2%0.23
Roman BadaninWRussia990.0%2.8%3.9%93.3%0.21
Jack GorniakWUnited States870.0%3.5%4.1%92.3%0.23
Danila DyadenkinWRussia540.0%2.7%4.8%92.5%0.20
Ivan RomanovWRussia670.0%3.2%7.4%89.4%0.14
Jerry TurkulainenWFinland610.0%2.4%2.8%94.7%0.21
Radim TomanWCzech Republic1010.0%3.0%5.0%92.0%0.15
Kody ClarkWCanada340.0%2.2%4.6%93.2%0.16
Riley HughesWUnited States1130.0%1.9%1.8%96.2%0.22
Matej SvobodaWCzech Republic750.0%2.8%4.2%92.9%0.13
Roman PucekWCzech Republic740.0%1.8%1.9%96.3%0.13
Otakar SikWCzech Republic980.0%1.6%1.7%96.6%0.10
Jan ZembaWCzech Republic1100.0%1.6%3.2%95.2%0.06
Justin SchutzWGermany950.0%1.5%2.1%96.4%0.01

 

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