Another tough week for the man fighting the good fight against the machine. 1-2 against the model and 2-4 overall. Still have a two-game lead over the model going into Week 11 but if I’m being honest, I’m running out of steam. Feels like I’m just going through the motions out here. Each week I open up the same goddamn sports book, look at the same goddamn teams, and right pretty much the same goddamn bullshit. I’ve officially reached my mid-season blues. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a bye week for a blogger/podcaster/division 3 play-by-play broadcaster so I have no choice but to plunge right back into the shit and try to work my way through this funk.
Chicago vs. Detroit | Model Says: Chicago +3
This is a tough one for me because I’m not sure if I should bet with my head or my heart. My heart loves the Bears (has all year) and would love for them to play spoiler to the Lions as they try to track down my beloved Vikings. My head says that with the Bears loss to Green Bay last weekend, their already long-shot odds to make some noise in the second half of the season pretty much evaporated and they really have nothing to play for. The coaching staff clearly doesn’t trust Trubisky to make plays (see the 10 throws a game he’s averaging) and John Fox seems hell-bent on making it as difficult as possible for his team to win (see last weeks challenge). The Lions are gearing up for a Thanksgiving Day game against the Vikings that could decide the division, and I think they use this one as a tune-up game.
Final Prediction: Detroit -3
Minnesota vs. LA Rams | Model Says: Over 46
I feel like this total is as high as it is due to recency bias from last week’s shootout. Case Montana came out slinging in Washington and made a strong case to send himself directly to Canton to be enshrined next to Johnny Unitas and Jared Goff, while the Rams kept rolling albeit over a Texans team who has thrown in the towel after the Watson injury. The fact of the matter is both of these teams have very good defenses and with Everson Griffen set to return for the Vikes this week, I feel like they’ll be able to get to Goff and shake up the second year starter. Odds are Case doesn’t look like a first ballot hall of famer on back to back weeks and with Teddy (and Zimmer) breathing down his neck, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the offense struggle.
Final Prediction: Under 46
Green Bay vs. Baltimore | Model Says: Under 38
Here’s my “this game has no business going over but what the hell it’s such a small number and the NFL makes no sense anyway so let’s just hammer the over” game of the week. Both teams have struggled to score and the Packers are water trash without Rodgers, but dammit if 38 points isn’t low… Also, it was mentioned on Hammer the Over but with the Packers winning in Chicago last weekend and somehow staying above .500, I honestly think they might win the Super Bowl this year. Hundley manages to get them to like 8-6 or 7-7, Rodgers comes back and wins the last two games of the year against Minnesota and Detroit, they squeak into the playoffs as the Vikings falter late, win a bunch of games on the road and win the Super Bowl in Minneapolis right in my face…. I can feel it creeping up on me like the shadow monster from Stranger Things.
Final Prediction: Over 38
Additional Picks
Minnesota -2.5 vs. LA Rams: I know what I said about the Vikings offense struggling earlier, and I do believe that will happen, but the Vikings at home in the Zimmer era is as close to a lock as there is in the NFL. -2.5 at home means Vegas thinks the Rams would be half point favorites at a neutral site, but I genuinely believe that U.S. Bank is more of a 4-5 point home field advantage. Throw in Zimmer toying with an inexperienced quarterback in Goff and I like the Vikings by a touchdown.
Dallas +3 vs. Philadelphia: I really don’t feel great about this one but I’m going to do it anyway because… well I’m really not sure why I’m betting this game. The Eagles are coming off their bye week. Dallas needs a win to stay alive in the NFC Wild Card race. Jerry Jones is on the brink of being forced out of the league. Zeke finally has accepted his suspension. Fat cats get slaughtered. None of these are reasons to bet this game, but they are all things that are currently happening so I thought I’d throw them all out there and see if it made me feel a little better about this game… it did not.
Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee Over 44: This one is just a hunch. Pitt is 7-2 but hasn’t looked overly impressive. Tennessee needs to decide if they want to take the AFC South or let the Jaguars hang around and make the playoffs (crazy to think about but that Jaguars D is pretty awesome). I think both offenses come out swinging and we see ourselves a nice little shootout in Pittsburgh.
That’s it for this week.
Fred: 14 Model: 12
Total Record: 19-28-3