We had an interesting week last week with two pushes in the additional picks section to put me at 2-1 against the model and 2-2-2 overall for the week. The Redskins finally pulled through for me so I’ll probably bet on them about 9 more times this season. I feel like the strategy of betting on overs for games that on the surface seem like they have zero business going over has been working out for me, but I have no statistical data to back that up and I’m not going to go out of my way to find it. I’m just gonna keep trusting the gut and shooting from the hip.
Chicago vs Green Bay | Model Says: Green Bay +4.5
I don’t know if this is my brain or my heart talking but after watching the Packers play Monday night, I honestly don’t know if they’ll ever win again. Seriously, the 100,000 owners have a very tough decision on their hands in terms of whether they finish out this season or just fold now. For the first time in the lives of many Packer fans, their season is essentially over at the halfway point and I couldn’t be happier about it.
Final Prediction: Chicago +4.5
Chicago vs Green Bay | Model Says: Under 38
Let’s just keep it rolling with this Packers-Bears game, I’ll probably be watching it so might as well just double up on it. It’s reason to assume that this will be a low scoring game. Both teams are working with inexperienced quarterbacks and their offenses have been virtually nonexistent the last 4 weeks, which is exactly why we hammer the over here. You can score 38 points without meaning to. Pick six here, punt return for a touchdown there, next thing you know we are at 21-18 going into half and we can all just sit back, relax, and enjoy the second half.
Final Prediction: Over 38
Tampa Bay vs New York Jets | Model Says: Bucs +2.5
Has there been a bigger disappointment this season than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? I can’t think of one. Between starting 2-6 and the least inspiring pump up speech of all time delivered by Jameis, this team just hasn’t produced. And given that they will be without Winston and Evans coupled with the fact that the Jets are basically refusing to tank, I think New York wins this one handily.
Final Prediction: Jets -2.5
Additional Picks
Buffalo +3 vs. New Orleans: Buffalo at home in front of Bills Mafia is a no-brainer here. No chance the Saints and their high flying dome offense can handle the elements and the degeneracy of Buffalo. Give me the Bills all day.
San Francisco +2.5 vs New York Giants: This is it. This is the week the Niners finally get a win. If you watched the Rams-Giants game last weekend, you know that the Giants have completely mailed it in. I’m talking “found a new job, submitted their two weeks” mailed it in. That defense was atrocious. I don’t think they’ll win again this year.
Atlanta vs Dallas Over 49: This just seems like a fun one to bet the over on. Even with Zeke suspended (maybe), taking the over in Atlanta is always a good ride.
That’s it for this week.
Fred: 13 Model: 10
Total Record: 17-24-3