Category Archives: March Madness

My Model Monday: Are You Beating the Model?

The first weekend of March Madness 2018 is in the books, and it was wild. When all was said and done, the same number of 11-seeds made the Sweet 16 as 1-seeds. Half of teams seeded 1-3 were knocked out in these first two rounds. And of course, the tournament saw a 1-seed exit in the first round for the first time ever (at least in the men’s tournament). It’s hard to imagine anyone’s bracket coming out of a weekend like this looking good. How bad was it? I dug into Model 284’s own March Madness contest to find out.

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Sweet 16 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all Sweet 16 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

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Round 2 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all 2nd Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

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Round 1 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all 1st Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

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Bracket Analysis | March Madness 2018

The article below discusses how our models view this year’s tournament field, and which teams are most likely to make a deep run. This is done in context of 60,000 simulations1 of this year’s tournament, which were performed using win probability predictions from our models. That simulation ultimately provides probabilities of each team advancing to the Sweet 16, Final Four, etc. Note that play-in game teams are subject to change.  Continue reading Bracket Analysis | March Madness 2018

Model 284 Bracket | March Madness 2018

Below is our Model 284 consensus bracket for the 2018 tournament. As you will see from our Round 1 Predictions and tournament simulation results, we do not necessarily pick the model’s predicted winner for every single game, but rather using our predictions weighed against popular public picks and focusing on our numbers for which teams are most likely to make it out of each region / sub-region.

If you want to hear more on what our model’s predictions, we discussed the bracket in detail on this week’s episode of the Model 284 podcast.

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Model 284 Podcast: March Madness Bracket Analysis

In this episode of the Model 284 Podcast, Sam Walczak and Marc Richards break down our models’ march madness predictions including win probabilities, spreads, totals, and everything you need to know for filling out your bracket. Additionally, Sam and Marc give their sales pitch on why you should use Model 284 when filling out your bracket which includes insights into how we build our models and what is unique about Model 284 March Madness predictions.

Listen on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/model-284-podcast/id1356851364?mt=2

Play-In Games | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for the four 2018 play-in games. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

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Model 284 March Madness Pool

Can you beat the Model? Enter a March Madness bracket into the group Model 284 for a chance to take on The Model. The winning bracket will receive a $100 Cash Prize and Second Place will receive a Model 284 Quarter Zip! In order to be eligible to win, you must either share this page or the Model 284 Tournament Challenge Group Page via Facebook, Instagram or Twitter! #TrustTheModel

Model 284 Bracket Pool