The following table provides each team’s percent chance of advancing to a given round, based on a simulation using our win probability models1. This allows us to view each team’s chances of making the Elite 8, Final 4, or any other round, and to compare that team to others in the field. For example, in the first row, our models give Arizona a 98.4% chance of advancing to the 2nd round, 51.0% chance of making the Final 4, 31.6% chance of making the title game, and 24.1% chance of winning it all. Continue reading March Madness – Tournament Simulation
All posts by Sam Walczak
March Madness – Regional Breakdown
The following provides a breakdown of each region, showing the results from our simulation of 60,000 tournaments for each team in a given region. Our full bracket of predictions can be found here. The probabilities show the probability that each team has of advancing to each round of the tournament. For example, in the first row of the East Region table, we give Duke a 31% chance of reaching the Final Four.
March Madness Full Bracket
The following bracket contains our consensus predictions for this year’s tournament. For each matchup, we considered predictions from all of our win probability and point spread models, as well as the results of a simulation of 60,000 tournaments.
Continue reading March Madness Full Bracket
March Madness – 1st Round Probabilities
The following tables display our predicted probabilities for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row of the East Region table, our models give Villanova a 97% chance of beating Mount Saint Mary’s (and, conversely, Mount Saint Mary’s a 3% chance of beating Villanova). We have more content on the way, including 1st round point spreads and totals, as well as a look at how our numbers see the entire tournament field.
For more on our methodology, click here.
A Look at the Brady-Belichick Super Bowls
This will be the 7th Super Bowl that the Brady-Belichick Patriots have played. While everyone remembers that they are 4-2 in Super Bowls, with both losses coming at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants, we took a quick look at other takeaways from those 6 games. Continue reading A Look at the Brady-Belichick Super Bowls
2016 Super Bowl Predictions
We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. So far this postseason, our average probabilities have picked 8/10 games correctly, and Models 2 and 3 have been the most accurate individual models, both going 9 for 10.
Continue reading 2016 Super Bowl Predictions
2016 NFL Championship Round Recap
In the two conference championship games on Sunday, our average probabilities went 1-1, correctly picking the Falcons (57%), but missing the Steelers (55%), to bring the average probability record for the playoffs to 8-2. Models 2 and 3 remained the most accurate, as they each had the Falcons winning (78% and 75%, respectively) and the Patriots winning (61% and 59%, respectively) to bring their records to 9-1 for the playoffs as a whole. Model 5 also went 2-0 this weekend, and improved to 8-2 for the playoffs. Our spread missed the Falcons (had ATL winning by only 3 points), but correctly predicted that the Patriots would cover (had NE winning by 7). Check back later this week for our Super Bowl predictions!
Continue reading 2016 NFL Championship Round Recap
2016 NFL Championship Game Predictions
We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. Our models consider many different metrics, such as turnovers, first downs, points scored, pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as a few metrics that we have created ourselves. Beyond these statistics, some models consider factors such as “did a team make the playoffs last year?” and “how far is the away team traveling?” See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. So far this postseason, our average probabilities have picked 7/8 winners correctly, and Models 2 and 3 have been the most accurate – also going 7 for 8.
Continue reading 2016 NFL Championship Game Predictions
2016 NFL Divisional Round Recap
In the second round, our average probabilities went 3-1, and all models individually were either 3-1 or 2-2. Model 1 was the only one to correctly pick the Packers over the Cowboys. For the playoffs as a whole, Models 2 and 3 are performing best, as they have correctly picked 7 of the 8 games, while Model 6 is performing worst, only picking 5 of 8 games correctly. The average probabilities are also 7-1, only missing the Packers/Cowboys game. Click here to see all of our predictions from the past weekend. Check back later this week for our Conference Championship game predictions!
Continue reading 2016 NFL Divisional Round Recap
2016 NFL Divisional Round Predictions
We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. Our models consider many different metrics, such as turnovers, first downs, points scored, pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as a few metrics that we have created ourselves. Beyond these statistics, some models consider factors such as “did a team make the playoffs last year?” and “how far is the away team traveling?” See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. The article below focuses on the four divisional round matchups for the coming weekend, but a breakdown of predictions for the entire 2016 NFL Playoffs can be found here, and our predictions from round 1 are here, where our average probabilities correctly predicted all four winners.
Continue reading 2016 NFL Divisional Round Predictions