Welcome, once again, to the Week 6 edition of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you.
Player Notes From Week 6
Todd Gurley: Just as I expected, Gurley was non-existent against Seattle. If you want to cash in on his hot start in a trade, you’re running out of time. Jacksonville will be another tough test for Gurley; so don’t be shocked if he has another rough week. Sell now before it’s too late.
Adrian Peterson: Peterson was traded to the Cardinals this week. He has been one of the worst backs in the NFL when he’s been healthy the last couple years. I don’t expect this to change in Arizona. Almost all of the issues that plagued Peterson with the Saints will follow him to the Cardinals. He still has to be handed the ball to be productive in any way, and he no longer looks like a 1st ballot HOF-er. The lone bright spot in this move for AP is that he will have much less competition for touches. I wouldn’t recommend picking up Peterson unless you are really hurting at running back.
Week 6 Studs
DeSean Jackson: Jackson has had an up and down year, trading off 15+ point games with sub-7 point performances. This week he is going to break that cycle against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have a reputation as a good passing defense thanks to players like Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, but they’re actually near the middle of the pack in passing defense, and have given up 10 receiving TDs through 5 games. While Patrick Peterson has shut down opponent’s number 1 receivers, the rest of the defense isn’t living up to his example. Through 5 games, they have allowed 5 TDs to the wide outs that Peterson isn’t blanketing. D-Jax is an above average second receiver in the NFL, so expect him to take advantage of a defense that is one of the worst in FPAE against WR over the last 7 games.
Deshaun Watson: Players like Watson are the reason we watch football. He has been the most exciting player in the league this year and it isn’t close. I would endorse him this week simply because I want to be part of this incredible run, but luckily for Watson owners, I have other reasons. The best reason in the world in fact. The Leaveland Clowns are coming to Houston to do the only thing they’re good for: padding fantasy stats. I’m rarely a hype train type of guy, but this is just too sweet of a story to stay away. ALL ABOARD!
Javorius Allen: Allen has been the lone bright spot in the fantasy world of the Baltimore Ravens this year. It seemed as though Allen may lose his starting gig a week or two ago, but in Oakland he proved that he is the only productive back on the roster. He should have plenty of room to work this week as he plays Chicago’s defense that’s only has 1 starting linebacker healthy this week. Even if he loses some touches to Alex Collins, Allen is currently leading the team in catches. He has a high floor this week, so do yourself a favor and bring some stability to your lineup.
Week 6 Duds
Jared Goff: This is Goff’s second straight week making this list. As I expected, this young QB couldn’t handle a real defense. This week he will play another real defense in Jacksonville. The Jags are top 3 in the NFL in opponent pass YPG, opponent passing TDs, and INTs. This one isn’t hard to predict. Goff will struggle and Todd Gurley will have the game in his hands. Our QB model has Goff at QB23 this week, projected for just 13.4 points.
DeVante Parker*: Last week I had Parker as one of my studs, and that didn’t work out. I’ve been really high on Parker since he was my favorite receiver in the 2015 draft. Since no NFL cornerbacks are, I’m done getting burnt by Parker. He had his chance to step up last week and couldn’t do it. With the state of this offense, Parker is a TD or bust player from here on out. Find yourself someone with a higher floor and roll with them instead.
* Note that Parker is listed as doubtful for Sunday, in case you needed more reason
Giants RBs: The Giants lost pretty much their whole team last week to ankle and foot injuries. As a result, they had to lean with their full weight on the running game. They were able to run all over the chargers. The difference between their situation last week and this week couldn’t be bigger. The Chargers are currently allowing 10 FPAE, which is the worst in the NFL. Comparably, the Giants Week 6 opponent is the Denver Broncos. AKA the best fantasy run defense in the league in FPAE with -8.5. There are very few backs in the league I would start against Denver, and none of them are New York Giants.