All posts by Marc Richards

The Predictive Value of NBA Summer League: NBA Rookies

Every July since 2004, a couple hundred NBA hopefuls have gathered in Orlando, Utah, and Las Vegas to compete in 5-6 junk ball basketball games known as the Summer League.  Whether you’re an NBA operations analyst or just a fan, NBA Summer League provides another opportunity to see a player—or in our case, another data point to project a player. But how much should we really take away from a few junk ball games in the beginning of July? Or, in “statistical” terms, what is the predictive value of summer league for a player’s actual NBA Performance? This analysis seeks to provide insights into how historical Summer League performances have related to NBA performances. More specifically, we’ll seek an answer to questions such as: how much can NBA Summer League performance tell us about overall rookie performance? How about second-year returning players? What should we take away, if anything, from these varying levels of performance in Summer League? In this article, I will focus solely on NBA rookies, providing meaningful data points and inferences about which statistics best translate from Summer League to NBA Rookie Season.
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Prospect Profile: Lauri Markkanen

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we look at Finnish-born Arizona product Lauri Markkanen.

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Prospect Profile: Jayson Tatum

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we look at the highly touted Jayson Tatum.

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Prospect Profile: Jonathan Isaac

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we look at Florida State product Jonathan Isaac.

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Prospect Profile: Lonzo Ball

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include our PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we explore one of the more highly debated draft prospects, Lonzo Ball.

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Prospect Profile: Markelle Fultz

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our models tell us about this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles will look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles).

In this article we dive into the consensus top ranked prospect Markelle Fultz from the perspective of our Draft Models. Our Draft Models include our PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects.

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2017 Stanley Cup Finals

Well, the Nashville Predators have done it again. Against all odds (or at least the Model’s odds), the Preds have punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Finals, where they will meet the reigning Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. While Nashville has continually defied logic by beating the Model, in their toughest test yet, the Model has them as heavy underdogs once again.

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Similarity Score Tool 2017

Select any 2017 drafted NBA player from the dropdown menu to view their top 10 most similar college basketball players historically. Similarity Scores provide insight into how a player will translate to the NBA based on how similar college basketball players in production, physical measurements and experience have performed in the NBA. For a background on the calculation of the similarity scores, see here. This model is one of three pieces that we use to evaluate the NBA potential of college players, with the other two being PNSP and NBA Role Probability Model.

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