The article below provides our predictions for all 1st Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
- 2018 Full Bracket: https://model284.com/model-284-bracket-march-madness-2018/
- 2018 Bracket Analysis: https://model284.com/bracket-analysis-march-madness-2018/
- Recap of Model Performance in 2017
- Historical Model Performance and Brackets
- Background on Win Probability Models
Win Probability & Spread Predictions
For each game, “Team1 Win Prob” represents our model’s probability that Team1 (the better-seeded team) wins the game. Probabilities below 50 are predictions that Team2 will win the game. The “284 Spread” is our model’s prediction of how many points Team1 will win by (for both Vegas and 284 Spreads, negative values indicate Team1 is favored, while positives indicate Team2 is favored). The “Team1 Cover Prob” is our model’s probability that Team1 covers the Vegas Spread. A Cover Prob below 50 favors Team2 to cover (and above 50 favors Team1 to cover). Note that our 284 Spread and Cover Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one is predicting Team1 covers and the other predicts Team2 covers):
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Team1 Win Prob | Vegas Spread | 284 Spread | Team1 Cover Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Virginia | 16 UMBC | 93 | -21 | -15 | 65 |
| 8 Creighton | 9 Kansas St | 28 | -1 | +2 | 49 |
| 5 Kentucky | 12 Davidson | 70 | -5 | -3 | 54 |
| 4 Arizona | 13 Buffalo | 74 | -8.5 | -3 | 58 |
| 6 Miami | 11 Loyola | 43 | -1.5 | -6 | 84 |
| 3 Tennessee | 14 Wright St | 82 | -12 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 Nevada | 10 Texas | 74 | -1 | -11 | 81 |
| 2 Cincinnati | 15 Georgia St | 81 | -13.5 | -6 | 56 |
| 1 Xavier | 16 TX South | 92 | -19.5 | -24 | 83 |
| 8 Missouri | 9 Florida St | 62 | +1.5 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 Ohio St | 12 S Dakota St | 67 | -7.5 | -4 | 6 |
| 4 Gonzaga | 13 Nc Greens | 86 | -12.5 | -7 | 36 |
| 6 Houston | 11 San Diego St | 81 | -4 | -7 | 70 |
| 3 Michigan | 14 Montana | 94 | -11 | -13 | 47 |
| 7 Texas A&M | 10 Providence | 42 | -3 | 0 | 32 |
| 2 UNC | 15 Lipscomb | 96 | -19.5 | -18 | 62 |
| 1 Villanova | 16 Radford | 86 | -23.5 | -21 | 93 |
| 8 Virginia Tech | 9 Alabama | 23 | -2 | +6 | 15 |
| 5 West Virginia | 12 Murray St | 88 | -10.5 | -10 | 73 |
| 4 Wichita St | 13 Marshall | 46 | -12 | -3 | 72 |
| 6 Florida | 11 St Bon | 63 | -5.5 | -1 | 37 |
| 3 Texas Tech | 14 SF Austin | 65 | -11 | -2 | 16 |
| 7 Arkansas | 10 Butler | 73 | +1.5 | -2 | 36 |
| 2 Purdue | 15 Cal St Full | 99 | -20.5 | -20 | 49 |
| 1 Kansas | 16 Penn | 94 | -13.5 | -16 | 26 |
| 8 Seton Hall | 9 NC St | 46 | -2.5 | -4 | 75 |
| 5 Clemson | 12 New Mex St | 71 | -5 | -8 | 43 |
| 4 Auburn | 13 Charleston | 60 | -9.5 | -13 | 13 |
| 6 TCU | 11 Syracuse | 35 | -4 | -2 | 93 |
| 3 Michigan St | 14 Bucknell | 81 | -14.5 | -15 | 19 |
| 7 Rhode Island | 10 Oklahoma | 83 | -2 | -6 | 38 |
| 2 Duke | 15 Iona | 90 | -20.5 | -12 | 58 |
Over/Under Predictions
For each game, the Vegas Total can be compared to our “284 Total” (our model’s prediction of how many points will be scored in the game) as well as our “Over Prob” (our model’s probability that the game goes over the Vegas Total). An Over Prob prediction below 50 sides with an Under, while a prediction above 50 sides with an Over. Note that our 284 Total and Over Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one is predicting over and the other predicts under):
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Vegas Total | 284 Total | Over Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Virginia | 16 UMBC | 121.5 | 123.8 | 48 |
| 8 Creighton | 9 Kansas St | 144.5 | 143.7 | 28 |
| 5 Kentucky | 12 Davidson | 143 | 149.7 | 15 |
| 4 Arizona | 13 Buffalo | 158 | 169.7 | 85 |
| 6 Miami | 11 Loyola | 133 | 147.8 | 81 |
| 3 Tennessee | 14 Wright St | 131.5 | 131.1 | 23 |
| 7 Nevada | 10 Texas | 143.5 | 158.4 | 94 |
| 2 Cincinnati | 15 Georgia St | 129.5 | 145.4 | 76 |
| 1 Xavier | 16 TX South | 160 | 165.1 | 70 |
| 8 Missouri | 9 Florida St | 147.5 | 144.7 | 31 |
| 5 Ohio St | 12 S Dakota St | 147 | 159.3 | 80 |
| 4 Gonzaga | 13 Nc Greens | 136 | 150.6 | 82 |
| 6 Houston | 11 San Diego St | 142.5 | 144.2 | 71 |
| 3 Michigan | 14 Montana | 135 | 142.0 | 71 |
| 7 Texas A&M | 10 Providence | 138 | 159.0 | 93 |
| 2 UNC | 15 Lipscomb | 161.5 | 159.0 | 45 |
| 1 Villanova | 16 Radford | 140.5 | 151.9 | 79 |
| 8 Virginia Tech | 9 Alabama | 141.5 | 148.3 | 50 |
| 5 West Virginia | 12 Murray St | 145.5 | 143.4 | 11 |
| 4 Wichita St | 13 Marshall | 166 | 166.0 | 60 |
| 6 Florida | 11 St Bon | 143 | 142.9 | 49 |
| 3 Texas Tech | 14 SF Austin | 137.5 | 160.0 | 82 |
| 7 Arkansas | 10 Butler | 151.5 | 159.2 | 78 |
| 2 Purdue | 15 Cal St Full | 145 | 143.8 | 24 |
| 1 Kansas | 16 Penn | 146.5 | 149.1 | 81 |
| 8 Seton Hall | 9 NC St | 157.5 | 163.5 | 76 |
| 5 Clemson | 12 New Mex St | 133 | 129.6 | 39 |
| 4 Auburn | 13 Charleston | 148 | 144.2 | 25 |
| 6 TCU | 11 Syracuse | 136.5 | 168 | 97 |
| 3 Michigan St | 14 Bucknell | 148 | 164.6 | 82 |
| 7 Rhode Island | 10 Oklahoma | 158 | 164.7 | 93 |
| 2 Duke | 15 Iona | 157.5 | 170.0 | 66 |
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