Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 9 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 9 Projections

I know I’ve discussed Carson Wentz the last two weeks, but I’m not even close to being tired of it. He has been the man this year for Philly, but was a big “disappointment” with only 211 yards and 2 TDs against the 49ers last week. Even with the unimpressive game, Wentz doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. That’s why its so exciting for fans that he will play Denver’s “no fly zone.” One of the leagues most exciting players will be going up against its best defense, in what is sure to be one of the best games of the week. It will be a big test, which is why Wentz is “only” QB5 in this week’s projections.

Speaking of young exciting quarterbacks, Deshaun Watson is playing the Colts this week. That means he’s starting for you fantasy football team. I know he is the 3^rd ranked QB in this week’s rankings, but nobody else has the upside that of Watson this week. He hasn’t scored less than 20 fantasy points since Week 2, and most recently threw for 402 yards and 4 TDs against Seattle. Watson is averaging just over 24 points per game this year, which includes a 5.7-point showing in a partial game Week 1. With his projection this week being 20.3, it’s a safe bet he will hit that projection against the team that has allowed 4.7 FPAE to QBs over their last 7 games (3rd worst in the NFL). To sum all of that up…START THIS MAN.

As I mentioned before, Deshaun Watson burned the Seahawks last week, but they will have a chance to rebound against the Redskins. Kirk Cousins has been pretty good this year, but not very consistently. He has scored either less than 12, or more than 20 in every game this year. That should make you nervous as a fantasy owner looking for someone to put up a solid game week in and week out. The model has Cousins as QB12 (15.4 fantasy points) this week, which means he barely makes the cut as a QB1. If you’re looking for a less risky option further down the projections, Matthew Stafford is projected QB 14.3 fantasy points this week (QB18). Stafford has scored in the 12-20 range that Cousins can’t seem to find in all but 2 games this year. He has a much more manageable matchup than Cousins this week as he will play Green Bay. Stafford hasn’t been putting up big games this year, but has been consistently average. Who you like more here comes down to consistency vs. upside. Take your pick.