Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 7 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 7 Projections

One player who stands out like a sore thumb in this week’s projection is Jacoby Brissett. “One-Snap”, as he is known by one of his former coaches, has done nothing impressive this year against anybody other than Cleveland, and most of his fantasy value lies in in his running ability (he is top 5 in rushing attempts and rush yards per game amongst QBs). That running ability plays a big part in his projection for this week (QB12). His matchup is not easy, as Jacksonville is toughest defense in the NFL in terms of FPAE against QBs with -5.5. With the Colts’ weak run defense limiting TOP, Jacksonville’s strong pass defense, and Brissett’s run-dependent scoring, the only reasonable path to a big game for the Indianapolis gunslinger is by getting in the end zone on the ground. While he is high in our weekly projection, he is a risky choice this week.

Matt Ryan has been the definition of disappointment for fantasy owners this year. The reigning MVP was drafted as QB4 on average this year but is struggling to stay within the top 20 thus far. With zero 20+ point games in 2017, there has been very little to get excited about from Ryan. This week is the week that changes. The Patriots will help get him back to where he should be. It still feels weird to say it, but the PATS are one of, if not the worst, passing defense in the NFL. They are allowing 8.0 FPAE to QB’s, the worst in the league. To put that in perspective, the Cleveland Mud-Slides are second and are nearly 2 full points per game better at 6.0. The average QB is putting up 325 yards and 2.3 touchdowns against New England this year. Matt Ryan is an above average QB, and is a must start this week.

Carson Wentz is has been doing his best Andrew Luck impression this year, and it doesn’t seem like a fluke. We see it all the time in the NFL. A young QB comes into the year and lights up subpar defenses for a few weeks, and everyone hops on the hype train. Then, as soon as he sees a real defense, the kid looks like a practice squad scrub. Wentz isn’t one of those players. Here is a list of some of the games he’s gotten it done in: @WAS, @KC, vs. ARI, @CAR. These defenses all in the average to above average range, and playing on the road is never a small task. And he has 4 top 5 QB finishes through 6 games while playing that schedule. So when he gets to play a home game against a Washington defense that could be missing a player as important as Josh Norman, you’re starting Wentz if you have him.