Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 15 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 15 Projections

Now that we are in the fantasy playoffs, every week is win or go home. You may have a QB who has carried your team to this point but is suddenly a matchup liability in crunch time. I’m going to examine a few QBs that are under 32% ownership (per NFL.com leagues) that may help you avoid elimination.

Case Keenum is averaging the most points per game (15.2) of any of the QBs I’m going to discuss here. For that reason, he will be the most likely to be owned in your league. People have begun to notice that Keenum is for real. He is averaging just over 20 points in last 5 games (which happened to be the hardest stretch of the Vikings season). This week Case is playing the Bengals who have given up 16 points or more to every QB they have faced since their Week 6 bye (including allowing 20-point games to DeShone Kizer and Mitch Trubisky). Keenum’s floor is high this week.

There is a difference between being a bad quarterback, and being a bad fantasy quarterback. Blake Bortles is a great example of this. While he manages to be one of, if not the worst starting QB in the NFL, he has remained fantasy relevant by streaming together some solid performances. Surprisingly, he is the QB12 among healthy QBs this season. His scoring has been a bit unpredictable, as he has scored less than 12 points five times, and over 22 points 3 times, making him a solid, but less consistent option.

There is a reason Jimmy Garoppolo has been so coveted by teams with QB problems over the last couple of years. He possesses a glimpse of every attribute you want in an NFL QB, and has been under the wing of one of the greatest QBs and head coaches ever. With almost no help from the misfits that make up his supporting cast in San Fran, Jimmy quietly threw for 627 yards in his first two starts, looking solid in both outings despite only throwing for one TD in each game. This week he will get to start his first home game as a ‘9er, which will hopefully result in a bit more help from the rest of the offense. This is a high risk/high reward situation.

When looking at these three players, Case Keenum is clearly your number one choice of the group, but, as I mentioned before, he is also the least likely to be available. So, if you can’t get your hands on Case, what should you do? You have to decide just how risky you want to be. You can take the turnover machine, who can boom or bust against any team at any time: Blake Bortles. Or you can take the unproven, but already a superior player, held back by the personnel around him: Jimmy Garoppolo. In my opinion, if you’re struggling with a fantasy decision of this nature, you bet on the superior player. This limits the deep feelings of regret that comes with a possible bust.