Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 11 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 11 Projections

With the success of young QBs like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, the rise of Alex Smith has gone a little under the radar. To the surprise of absolutely everyone, Smith the QB3 through 10 Weeks. Just 13 years later, we’re finally seeing some of the potential that the 49ers saw when they took Smith 1st overall in a draft that featured Aaron Rodgers. Smith is averaging 18.1 points per game, and has had at least 18.4 points against any team in the bottom half of the league in QB fantasy points allowed per game. With the success he’s had, its almost surprising that he is only 4th in this weeks projections at 19.0 points. This is especially surprising considering he is playing the Giants, who are dead last in both fantasy points allowed to QBs and fantasy points above expectation to QBs. They have held only Trevor Simian under 20 points since Week 4. All this considered, Alex Smith has the safest floor of any QB this week.

“That feeling when you’re expecting Case Keenum, but John Elway shows up” *insert meme here. Keenum lit up the Redskins last week for 300+ yards and 4 TDs in the best game of his career. The model seems to have responded well to this big performance by projecting Case 16.9 points (QB8) this week. That would be a huge endorsement for him against anyone, but he is playing the Rams, one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. If you’re a true believer in the model, and looking for a QB to stream this week, look no further than Case Keenum.

Matthew Stafford is continuing to do Matthew Stafford things this year. Of course, by “Matthew Stafford things” I mean carrying an otherwise bad team to mild relevance. He has been as hot as any QB in the league the last few weeks, but has a tough road division game against the Bears this week, and finds himself projected as just QB17 (13.9 points). Despite their reputation, the Bears have been decent against the pass this year. This is a classic case of having a low floor and a high ceiling. I expect Stafford to outperform his projection, but don’t bank on a huge game from him.