Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 10 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 10 Projections

It must be 2015, because this week we project Cam Newton to be the highest scoring QB of the week at 20.4 fantasy points. Even though Newton has yet to finish as the QB1 on the week this year, Week 10 could very well be the one. He will be playing the Dolphins garbage defense at home this week. Even though our total for this game is only 39.5, his rushing helps Newton’s floor. He has at least 9 rushing attempts in each of his last four games. If Cam can get back on track as a passer, he could have a huge game this week.

The 2017 season has brought us a group of young quarterbacks who have surprised everyone with their success. One of those players is Jared Goff. Goff hasn’t been quite as spectacular as Carson Wentz or Deshaun Watson, but he’s certainly been better than everyone expected. Normally a matchup with Houston isn’t ideal, but amidst all of the injuries they’ve had, this defense is extremely exploitable. They are giving up 3.6 FPAE to QBs in their last 7 games. Goff is projected as the QB5 this week (18.7 points), and could have a monster week if Houston doesn’t come to play.

I know that nobody wants to hear about the 49ers. They’re a disaster, but I have to talk about C.J. Bethard this week with the talented cast of QBs on the bye. If you’re looking for a one-week fill in, there probably aren’t many decent options out there. Bethard should be available in your league, and could pay off with a decent game against the Giants. New York has given up 5.4 FPAE to QBs over their last 7 games (2nd worst in the NFL). We project Bethard as the QB14 this week. Oh yeah, and C.J. threw for 294 yards in a 17.4 point game against Arizona last week. He’s a risky choice, but I think he has as good of a shot as other streamers. Take a chance on C.J.