The article below provides our predictions for the four 2018 play-in games. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

• Recap of Model Performance in 2017
• Historical Model Performance and Brackets
• Background on Win Probability Models

Win Probability & Spread Predictions

For each game, “Team1 Win Prob” represents our model’s probability that Team1 (the better-seeded team) wins the game. Probabilities below 0.50 are predictions that Team2 will win the game. The “284 Spread” is our model’s prediction of how many points Team1 will win by (for both Vegas and 284 Spreads, negative values indicate Team1 is favored, while positives indicate Team2 is favored). The “Team1 Cover Prob” is our model’s probability that Team1 covers the Vegas Spread. A Cover Prob below 0.50 favors Team2 to cover (and above 0.50 favors Team1 to cover). Note that our 284 Spread and Cover Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one is predicting Team1 covers and the other predicts Team2 covers):

Over/Under Predictions

For each game, the Vegas Total can be compared to our “284 Total” (our model’s prediction of how many points will be scored in the game) as well as our “Over Prob” (our model’s probability that the game goes over the Vegas Total). An Over Prob prediction below 0.50 sides with an Under, while a prediction above 0.50 sides with an Over. Note that our 284 Total and Over Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one is predicting over and the other predicts under):