The following table displays our predicted probabilities for all 2017 second round games. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row, our models give Villanova a 65% chance of beating Wisconsin (and, conversely, Wisconsin a 35% chance of beating Villanova). The favored team according to our probabilities (i.e., > 50% chance of winning) has their probability marked in green. For more on our methodology, click here.
1st Round Recap
In the first round of games, our average probabilities went 27-4-1, and our bracket predictions went 28-4 (to see our full bracket, click here), only missing on Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, Creighton, and SMU. Teams with win probabilities of 0.80 or more finished 16-0. To see all of our first round probabilities, click here.
2nd Round Matchups
Seed 1 / Team 1 | Seed 2 / Team 2 | Team 1 Prob | Team 2 Prob |
---|---|---|---|
1 Villanova | 8 Wisconsin | 0.65 | 0.35 |
4 Florida | 5 Virginia | 0.42 | 0.58 |
3 Baylor | 11 USC | 0.38 | 0.62 |
2 Duke | 7 South Car | 0.81 | 0.19 |
1 Gonzaga | 8 NW | 0.53 | 0.47 |
4 West-Va. | 5 Notre Dame | 0.68 | 0.32 |
3 Fla St | 11 Xavier | 0.44 | 0.56 |
2 Arizona | 7 St. Mary's | 0.82 | 0.18 |
1 Kansas | 9 Mich St | 0.81 | 0.19 |
4 Purdue | 5 Iowa St | 0.55 | 0.45 |
3 Oregon | 11 Rhode I | 0.89 | 0.11 |
2 Louisville | 7 Michigan | 0.29 | 0.71 |
1 UNC | 8 Arkansas | 0.64 | 0.36 |
4 Butler | 12 Middle TN | 0.10 | 0.90 |
3 UCLA | 6 Cincinnati | 0.81 | 0.19 |
2 Kentucky | 10 Wichita St | 0.40 | 0.60 |