March Madness – 2nd Round Betting

The following table displays our predicted point spreads, point totals, and over probabilities for all sixteen 2017 second round games. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row, our models have Villanova (-6) beating Wisconsin by 6 points, and Vegas also has Villanova (-6) beating Wisconsin by 6 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Villanova-Wisconsin game as 130.8 (while Vegas has 128.5), with a 45% chance of going over the total.

1st Round Recap

In the first round, considering games where our total differed from Vegas by 5 points or more AND our probability of going over/under was at least 80%, our totals went 9-1. In all first round of games, the model was 17-14-1 against the spread and 21-10-1 on Over/Under predictions. To see all of the model’s first round spreads and point totals, click here. For more on the historical performance of our point spread and point total models, click here.

2nd Round Matchups

Seed1/
Team1
Seed2/
Team2
Our
Spread
Vegas
Spread
Our
Total
Vegas
Total
Over
Prob
1 VIL8 WIS-6.0-6130.8128.50.45
4 FL5 VA+2.2-2126.9125.50.46
3 BAY11 USC+2.1-7153.8143.00.93
2 DUKE7 SC-8.1-7.5144.6142.00.47
1 GON8 NW-10.1-11135.2140.50.19
4 WVU5 ND+2.0-3163.6145.50.97
3 FSU11 XAV+1.9-7147.6151.00.96
2 AZ7 ST-MAR-5.1-5128.7132.00.59
1 KU9 MSU-5.0-8153.2147.50.73
4 PUR5 ISU-1.9-1162.0152.00.92
3 ORE11 RI-11.5-5142.3138.50.51
2 LOU7 MICH-1.5-2.5148.6141.00.80
1 UNC8 ARK-3.1-11177.1160.50.98
4 BUT12 MTSU+7.1-3.5135.2141.00.08
3 UCLA6 CIN-9.9-4163.8153.00.98
2 UK10 WICH+1-4.5152.8153.50.42