The following table displays our predicted point spreads, point totals, and over probabilities for all sixteen 2017 second round games. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row, our models have Villanova (-6) beating Wisconsin by 6 points, and Vegas also has Villanova (-6) beating Wisconsin by 6 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Villanova-Wisconsin game as 130.8 (while Vegas has 128.5), with a 45% chance of going over the total.
1st Round Recap
In the first round, considering games where our total differed from Vegas by 5 points or more AND our probability of going over/under was at least 80%, our totals went 9-1. In all first round of games, the model was 17-14-1 against the spread and 21-10-1 on Over/Under predictions. To see all of the model’s first round spreads and point totals, click here. For more on the historical performance of our point spread and point total models, click here.
2nd Round Matchups
Seed1/ Team1 | Seed2/ Team2 | Our Spread | Vegas Spread | Our Total | Vegas Total | Over Prob |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 VIL | 8 WIS | -6.0 | -6 | 130.8 | 128.5 | 0.45 |
4 FL | 5 VA | +2.2 | -2 | 126.9 | 125.5 | 0.46 |
3 BAY | 11 USC | +2.1 | -7 | 153.8 | 143.0 | 0.93 |
2 DUKE | 7 SC | -8.1 | -7.5 | 144.6 | 142.0 | 0.47 |
1 GON | 8 NW | -10.1 | -11 | 135.2 | 140.5 | 0.19 |
4 WVU | 5 ND | +2.0 | -3 | 163.6 | 145.5 | 0.97 |
3 FSU | 11 XAV | +1.9 | -7 | 147.6 | 151.0 | 0.96 |
2 AZ | 7 ST-MAR | -5.1 | -5 | 128.7 | 132.0 | 0.59 |
1 KU | 9 MSU | -5.0 | -8 | 153.2 | 147.5 | 0.73 |
4 PUR | 5 ISU | -1.9 | -1 | 162.0 | 152.0 | 0.92 |
3 ORE | 11 RI | -11.5 | -5 | 142.3 | 138.5 | 0.51 |
2 LOU | 7 MICH | -1.5 | -2.5 | 148.6 | 141.0 | 0.80 |
1 UNC | 8 ARK | -3.1 | -11 | 177.1 | 160.5 | 0.98 |
4 BUT | 12 MTSU | +7.1 | -3.5 | 135.2 | 141.0 | 0.08 |
3 UCLA | 6 CIN | -9.9 | -4 | 163.8 | 153.0 | 0.98 |
2 UK | 10 WICH | +1 | -4.5 | 152.8 | 153.5 | 0.42 |