Okay, so not the best showing from me last week. In fact, that was easily my worst performance of the year. 0-5-1 with my best effort a push in the Dolphins-Jets game. I’d say the model got lucky but I’m a more gracious loser than that. Besides, I think the model needed a little confidence boost after I took its’ lunch money and shoved it into a locker during Week 7. So congrats to the model. Good week. Not gonna happen again. Let’s cook.

Atlanta vs New York Jets | Model Says:Jets +4.5

Atlanta got exposed in Foxborough on Sunday night. Their offense couldn’t convert when it mattered, and the defense had no answer for Tom Brady. The loss puts the Falcons at 3-3 and behind New Orleans in the NFC South. Sort of a do-or-die time of year for the Dirty Birds. I think they’ll come out like animals backed into a corner and blow out the Jets on the road.
Final Prediction: Falcons -4.5

Minnesota vs Cleveland | Model Says: Under 37.5

So I know neither of these teams has what you’d call a “potent” offense. Add in the fact that they are traveling to London and that funky turf and you might be inclined to take a look at this under, but I’m here to say not so fast. 37.5 points is so so low. You can accidentally get 38 points in a football game. The Vikings defense alone might score 38 points. I’ll take my chances that Chase Montana and the Vikings offense can put up a decent number and the Browns luck into a touchdown or a couple field goals.
Final Prediction: Over 37.5

Denver vs Kansas City| Model Says: Chiefs -7.5

Broncos have looked pretty, pretty, pretty bad the last couple of weeks. After a promising start, the Donks have dropped their last two including being shutout against the Chargers last week. The AFC West has really tightened up, as the Chiefs have also lost their last two games. Kansas City at home is usually a pretty safe bet, and I think they will probably win this game, but that half point on the touchdown is just too tasty to pass up.
Final Prediction: Broncos +7.5

Additional Picks

San Francisco +13 vs. Philly: San Francisco has yet to win a game but they have been dynamite in terms of covering (except for last week). Philadelphia sits atop the league standings and everyone is ready to crown Carson Wentz the new prince of the NFL. I think they come back down to earth this week. This is literally the same logic I used last week with these two teams and it did NOT work. Let’s see if it works this week.

New England vs LA Chargers Over 48.5: Tom Brady is somehow 28 years old again and leading the league in passing yards. And after a 0-4 start, the Chargers are quietly working their way back to relevance and have won 3 straight. I think points fly here in a game with two competent passing offenses (which is somewhat of a rarity in the NFL this year). I’d love to see a bunch of scoring in this game with both offenses going off so that’s how I’m going to bet it.

Washington +2.5 vs. Dallas: Dallas has one good game and everyone thinks they are back on track. I’m not buying it yet. Plus for some reason, I really like betting Washington. No idea why since it really hasn’t worked out well for me. This is the week though. This is always the week.

That’s it for this week. SKOL

Fred: 9 Model: 8
Total Record: 13-18-1