Welcome back to another installment of Man vs Model. Last week I was 1-1 against the model with the under hitting easily in the Baltimore-Cincinnati game and the 49ers letting me down in a big way in a blowout loss to Carolina. All things considered, I’d say that’s not a bad start to my lifelong battle against the machine, but I’m not a huge fan of the idea of tying in general. Sports, and really anything in life, shouldn’t end in ties. Just defeats the purpose competing in the first place. We play until there’s a winner, or until they drag us off the field kicking, screaming, and covered in blood. So with that being said, we are gonna change things up a little bit in the format of this blog. First, I’ll be adding another game to my picks against the model. This way there is at least a clear cut winner between me and that cold, heartless machine. Additionally, I will be adding a couple of more picks that I like that aren’t necessarily in contrast to the model. Our numbers are right more than 50% of the time, so it would be foolish of me not to use the model with some of my picks. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Baltimore vs. Cleveland | Model Says: OVER 39
Ok come on. The model is making this too easy. I know that the total is low but like I said last week for the Baltimore-Cincinnati game, there are just some games where you look at the teams are playing and you just know that no matter what the total is set at, they’ll find a way make that under hit. Honestly, I’d say their respective MLB teams have a better chance of combining for 39 points than these two offenses. Last week Baltimore took care of business on the defensive side of the ball but their offense wasn’t particularly impressive. Not to mention the fact that Danny Woodhead is currently on IR and this team just doesn’t have many weapons. Cleveland and their rookie quarterback are in a similar situation. The defense was impressive in holding the Steelers to 21 points, and Kizer showed some promise, but a rookie quarterback going into Baltimore doesn’t feel like a great situation. Long story short, no amount of money is the correct amount of money to bet on a Baltimore Ravens – Cleveland Browns football game.
Final Prediction: the under is the play, Baltimore 17 – Cleveland 14
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia | Model says: Kansas City -5.5
Everyone and their mother was shocked last Thursday night as Alex Smith turned into Brett Favre and diced the Patriot defense up to the tune of 4 touchdowns and 300+ yards. Kareem Hunt looked like Barry freaking Sanders and the Chiefs took New England behind the woodshed in front of a national audience. Similar to pretty much everyone else, I’m assuming the model watched this game on it’s couch and got itself a little cyber hard-on for the Chiefs. Now I’m not saying I don’t think Kansas City is a really solid football team, I do. I’m just not prepared to crown them Super Bowl Champions just yet. I’ll take the ten years of evidence that says Alex Smith is an average quarterback and take a chance on Vegas (and the public pushing this line up) getting themselves caught up in overreaction week. I’ve also been on record as a guy who believes in this Eagles team. They didn’t look overly impressive against the Skins last week, but Carson and his guys did enough to take care of a divisional opponent on the road. People forget it’s hard to win on the road in the NFL.
Final Prediction: I’ll take the Eagles and the points in a close game
Jacksonville vs. Tennessee | Model says: Jacksonville +2
Jacksonville upset Houston on Sunday to get themselves above .500 for the first time in SIX YEARS (if you can call beating Tom Savage an upset). Six straight years the Jags lost their opener and never strung together enough wins after that to have a winning record. That is astounding. Now, to be honest, it’s hard to say exactly how impressive their win really was. Blake Bortles looked pretty good for having to play as Blake Bortles, Leonard Fournette established himself as a legitimate NFL running back, and the defense made the Texans offensive line look like the 2016 Vikings. Tennessee lost to a very good Oakland Raiders team. I was pretty high on the Titans going into the year and I’m not prepared to down grade them just yet. I think the Jaguars are the Jaguars and the Titans are an above average team. Cream always rises to the top.
Final Prediction: Titans get their eventual playoff season on track and cover -2
Additional Picks
Chicago +7 at Tampa Bay: The model agrees with me on this one, giving the Bears a 70% chance of covering against the Bucs. I LOVE Chicago this year. Not in terms of winning per say but I think their defense is good enough to keep a lot of games close and sneak in a bunch of covers. Add in Tampa is coming off an unorthodox bye week plus distractions from Hurricane Irma, and I think Chicago has a chance to actually steal this one outright.
Arizona at Indianapolis UNDER 44: man are the Colts just awful without Andrew Luck and to be honest I’m not sure the Cardinals are going to be much better off without David Johnson. These two teams are missing easily their best two players. I’m not sure there’s enough offensive competence to score 44 points in this game. For what it’s worth the model agree with me to a point, giving the under a 53% chance of hitting. Classic numbers guys giving themselves some wiggle room on either side. Have a spine and make a pick.
Dolphins at Chargers -4: kind of a weird spot here with Miami playing their first game and the line being in no man’s land, but I liked the Chargers to start the year and they showed some fight to come back against Denver in a tough spot on the road in the altitude against a solid defense. They also covered a +3.5 for me last week and I like to reward teams that make me money until they clear out my bank account. I’ll take the Chargers with similar logic to my Bears pick in that I just think these Florida teams got a tough break with the hurricane scheduling and it might take a weak or two for them to get their feet back underneath them.
Alright, that’s gonna do it for me this week. I’ll keep a running total of my record against the model as well as my total record in games I post on here. If you want to win, or at least feel ALIVE, you’ll ride with me this weekend. Let’s cook.
Fred: 1 Model: 1
Total Record: 1-1