I’d like to preface this blog by making it clear that I am a firm backer of the model and will be making most of my gambling decisions with it in mind. I’ll be the first to admit that my best gambling run (March Madness weeks one and two of this year) was thanks in large part to this website’s model and its proficiency in predicting overs. Maybe even more importantly, the likelihood that I could one day quit my day job and work full time at Model 284 rests almost entirely in the model’s ability to predict the outcomes of football games. All of that being said, the model can’t get it all right. There are certain things that the model simply cannot account for. Do you think a model could have predicted the New Orleans Saints response to Hurricane Katrina upon their return to the Superdome in September of 2006? Could any model in the world predict when Eli Manning decides to blackout, channel his inner Joe Montana, and carry the Giants to a Superbowl? And don’t you dare tell me a model has the awareness to understand just what a color rush means to a seemingly meaningless Jaguars-Titans Thursday Night Football game. Point being, there are a lot of factors that the model can’t account for. This is where I come in. If the model is the Great Wall of China, think of me as the guy who is in charge of plugging all of the small cracks and holes that pop up along the wall. In a country that prides itself on its’ use of checks and balances, I’m here to remind the nerds of this company that sometimes the numbers do lie.

Panthers @ 49ers

Right off the bat, the model misses in the game they predict the home team has the least likely chance of covering. The model gives the San Francisco 49ers a 33% chance to cover as 6 point dogs at home against Carolina. To me, this is an opportunity to beat the computers and Vegas early while the bias from last season is still strong. I’m not saying that the 49ers are a playoff team, not by a long shot. They are a bottom of the barrel team for 2017 but there’s something to be said for adding a new head coach and a new starting quarterback to get the juices going early in the season. I remember two seasons ago a similar 49ers team with a new head coach jumping all over a promising Vikings team on Monday Night Football to the tune of a 20-3 victory. That team finished 5-11. Cam Newton is coming off shoulder surgery and potentially his worst season as a professional. Add that to the fact that I’m pretty sure I saw him tear his ACL playing quarterback for the Florida State Seminoles last Saturday night, and I just don’t see Cam being himself this Sunday. I’m not saying that Brian Hoyer is a world beater or the long term answer to San Francisco’s quarterback situation, but he is the only quarterback since 1999 to have a winning season with the Cleveland Browns…. so yeah, he’s pretty much a world beater. Final Prediction: San Francisco covers the 6 points.

Ravens @ Bengals

The other model prediction I’d like to debunk is the preposterous idea that a Baltimore Ravens – Cincinnati Bengals game could go over. I don’t care if the o/u is set at 14, there is not a chance there has been a Ravens – Bengals game that has hit the over in the last decade and I don’t care how many statistics and facts and actual game scores refute that sentiment (the over is 6-6 with an average score of 44.3 in the last 12 Bengals-Ravens games). The last time I checked, Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton were still the starting quarterbacks of these teams, which to me means that there is an absolute maximum of 30 points scored. Flacco is barely recovered from a dead lifting injury for god’s sake. Even I know nothing good can happen in the gym. I know it was roughly 20 years ago at this point but no team that once employed Trent Dilfer as a starting NFL quarterback will ever get me to lay down my money on an over. Final Prediction: Under is the winning ticket with a score of something like 17-10.

Throughout this season I’ll be posting a “Fred vs the Model” type of article each week to let the good people of the internet know when the math simply doesn’t add up. It’s a tall task taking on all of these “facts” and “figures” but somebody has to do it. Much like John Henry the Steel Driving Man in his quest to beat the steam engine, I may eventually die in my endeavors against this foreign technology, but I will not be intimidated and I will not be defeated.