The table below provides our predictions for all games in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The table will be updated after each round of the tournament, with new games/predictions added as they become available. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided above the table, and a summary of the historical accuracy of each model is provided at the end of the post. See our related posts on our Full 2021 Tournament Bracket and our Tournament Simulation results.
Win Probability & Spread Predictions
Win Probabilities – For each game, “Team1 Win Prob” represents our model’s probability that Team1 (the better-seeded team) wins the game. Probabilities below 50 indicate that Team2 is more likely to win the game.
Spreads – The “284 Spread” is our model’s prediction of how many points Team1 will win by. For both Vegas and 284 Spreads, negative values indicate Team1 is favored, while positives indicate Team2 is favored.
Totals – The Vegas Total can be compared to our “284 Tot,” which is our model’s prediction of how many points will be scored in the game.
| Team1 | Team2 | Round | Team1 Win Prob | Vegas Spread | 284 Spread | Vegas Tot | 284 Tot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gonzaga | 1 Baylor | 6 | 0.71 | -4.5 | -7.8 | 159.5 | 155.1 |
| 1 Baylor | 2 Houston | 5 | 0.64 | -5 | -3.4 | 134.5 | 134.5 |
| 1 Gonzaga | 11 UCLA | 5 | 0.79 | -14 | -12.6 | 145 | 153.7 |
| 2 Houston | 12 Oregon St | 4 | 0.80 | -8 | -12.6 | 130 | 128.9 |
| 1 Baylor | 3 Arkansas | 4 | 0.72 | -7 | -5.8 | 149 | 149.3 |
| 1 Gonzaga | 6 USC | 4 | 0.78 | -9 | -10.8 | 154.5 | 151.5 |
| 1 Michigan | 11 UCLA | 4 | 0.62 | -7.5 | -2.1 | 136 | 141.5 |
| 8 Loyola Chi | 12 Oregon St | 3 | 0.70 | -7 | -6.7 | 125.5 | 127.1 |
| 1 Baylor | 5 Villanova | 3 | 0.75 | -6.5 | -6.6 | 140 | 143.4 |
| 3 Arkansas | 15 Oral Roberts | 3 | 0.73 | -11 | -7.6 | 159.5 | 153.5 |
| 2 Houston | 11 Syracuse | 3 | 0.73 | -6 | -8.3 | 139.5 | 139.3 |
| 1 Gonzaga | 5 Creighton | 3 | 0.79 | -13.5 | -11.9 | 158 | 160.4 |
| 1 Michigan | 4 Florida St | 3 | 0.61 | -3 | -2.8 | 144 | 142.3 |
| 2 Alabama | 11 UCLA | 3 | 0.74 | -6 | -5.3 | 146 | 153.9 |
| 6 USC | 7 Oregon | 3 | 0.53 | -2.5 | -0.3 | 139 | 135.2 |
| 1 Illinois | 8 Loyola Chi | 2 | 0.63 | -7 | -5 | 133 | 129.4 |
| 1 Baylor | 9 Wisconsin | 2 | 0.76 | -6.5 | -7.7 | 137 | 137 |
| 3 West Va | 11 Syracuse | 2 | 0.54 | -4 | -1.6 | 147 | 146.9 |
| 3 Arkansas | 6 Texas Tech | 2 | 0.59 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 140.5 | 137.1 |
| 2 Houston | 10 Rutgers | 2 | 0.79 | -8 | -12 | 132 | 131.5 |
| 7 Florida | 15 Oral Roberts | 2 | 0.65 | -8.5 | -4.3 | 149 | 152.2 |
| 5 Villanova | 13 North Texas | 2 | 0.63 | -5.5 | -4.7 | 126.5 | 130.6 |
| 4 Okla St | 12 Oregon St | 2 | 0.60 | -6 | -2.5 | 142.5 | 139.3 |
| 2 Iowa | 7 Oregon | 2 | 0.65 | -4 | -3.6 | 147 | 145 |
| 1 Gonzaga | 8 Oklahoma | 2 | 0.82 | -14.5 | -14.2 | 154 | 156 |
| 11 UCLA | 14 Abl Christ | 2 | 0.49 | -5 | -0.3 | 132.5 | 134.7 |
| 5 Creighton | 13 Ohio | 2 | 0.68 | -5.5 | -5.3 | 149.5 | 147.5 |
| 1 Michigan | 8 LSU | 2 | 0.55 | -5 | -1 | 149 | 154.5 |
| 4 Florida St | 5 Colorado | 2 | 0.58 | -1 | -0.9 | 139 | 138.3 |
| 2 Alabama | 10 Maryland | 2 | 0.72 | -6 | -4.9 | 137.5 | 145.5 |
| 3 Kansas | 6 USC | 2 | 0.64 | 1.5 | -3 | 134.5 | 138.8 |
| 5 Colorado | 12 Georgetown | 1 | 0.68 | -4.5 | -5.1 | 138 | 143.2 |
| 4 Florida St | 13 UNC Greens | 1 | 0.69 | -11 | -6.4 | 145.5 | 147.6 |
| 3 Kansas | 14 East Wash | 1 | 0.68 | -10.5 | -6.1 | 143 | 147.1 |
| 8 LSU | 9 St. Bonaventure | 1 | 0.57 | -2.5 | -3 | 144.5 | 144.6 |
| 1 Michigan | 16 Texas So | 1 | 0.77 | -25.5 | -11.2 | 142.5 | 145.3 |
| 5 Creighton | 12 UCSB | 1 | 0.61 | -6.5 | -3.6 | 137.5 | 144.4 |
| 2 Alabama | 15 Iona | 1 | 0.82 | -16.5 | -11.3 | 146 | 149.4 |
| 6 USC | 11 Drake | 1 | 0.53 | -6.5 | -0.6 | 135 | 138.2 |
| 2 Iowa | 15 Grand Canyon | 1 | 0.73 | -15 | -8.9 | 145 | 144.9 |
| 7 UConn | 10 Maryland | 1 | 0.63 | -3 | -3.8 | 129.5 | 129.1 |
| 4 Virginia | 13 Ohio | 1 | 0.64 | -8 | -5.1 | 131.5 | 135.5 |
| 8 Oklahoma | 9 Missouri | 1 | 0.52 | -2.5 | +0.5 | 141 | 140.2 |
| 1 Gonzaga | 16 Norfolk St | 1 | 0.89 | -33 | - | 153.5 | - |
| 6 BYU | 11 UCLA | 1 | 0.45 | -4 | +1.9 | 138.5 | 143.4 |
| 3 Texas | 14 Abl Christ | 1 | 0.59 | -9 | -3.6 | 139.5 | 142.8 |
| 7 Oregon | 10 VCU | 1 | 0.60 | -6 | -2.9 | 137 | 139.5 |
| 7 Florida | 10 VA Tech | 1 | 0.63 | -1 | -2.4 | 137.5 | 140.1 |
| 3 Arkansas | 14 Colgate | 1 | 0.65 | -8.5 | -4.4 | 162.5 | 153.8 |
| 1 Illinois | 16 Drexel | 1 | 0.80 | -22.5 | -11.6 | 144.5 | 138.3 |
| 6 Texas Tech | 11 Utah St | 1 | 0.68 | -5 | -5.2 | 131.5 | 127.1 |
| 2 Ohio St | 15 Oral Roberts | 1 | 0.72 | -16.5 | -7.3 | 155.5 | 150.2 |
| 1 Baylor | 16 Hartford | 1 | 0.84 | -26 | -13.7 | 141 | 139.3 |
| 8 Loyola Chi | 9 Georgia Tech | 1 | 0.67 | -1.5 | -4.1 | 124.5 | 126.9 |
| 5 Tennessee | 12 Oregon St | 1 | 0.70 | -7.5 | -6.1 | 131.5 | 134.1 |
| 4 Okla St | 13 Liberty | 1 | 0.54 | -9 | -0.9 | 142 | 136.6 |
| 8 UNC | 9 Wisconsin | 1 | 0.66 | -1 | -5.6 | 139.5 | 139.6 |
| 2 Houston | 15 Cleveland St | 1 | 0.85 | -20 | -15.5 | 135 | 133.4 |
| 4 Purdue | 13 North Texas | 1 | 0.6 | -7.5 | -2.4 | 127.5 | 127.4 |
| 7 Clemson | 10 Rutgers | 1 | 0.57 | 2 | -1.2 | 126.5 | 131.6 |
| 6 San Diego St | 11 Syracuse | 1 | 0.69 | -2.5 | -5.3 | 139.5 | 146.5 |
| 3 West Va | 14 Morehead St | 1 | 0.65 | -12.5 | -6.2 | 136.5 | 137.5 |
| 5 Villanova | 12 Winthrop | 1 | 0.59 | -6.5 | -4.9 | 140 | 151.3 |
| 16 Mt St Mary's | 16 Texas So | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | -0.8 | 132.5 | 135.4 |
| 11 Wichita St | 11 Drake | 0 | 0.45 | -2 | +0.8 | 140.5 | 139.6 |
| 16 Norfolk St | 16 App St | 0 | - | 3 | - | 134.5 | - |
| 11 Michigan St | 11 UCLA | 0 | 0.59 | -2 | -2.4 | 136 | 141.8 |
Model Accuracy
Below is a summary of how each individual model performed on all 2017-2019 tournament games, with 2021 results being added to the tables as they become available. Note that spread/cover and total/over models are graded against the numbers as they are shown in the tables above. Additionally, links to detailed recaps of all predictions from previous tournaments can be found by following links in the header menu above.
| Year | Win Prob | 284 Spread | Cover Prob | |||
| Rec | % | Rec | % | Rec | % | |
| 2017 | 47-15 | 0.76 | 34-26 | 0.57 | 42-21 | 0.67 |
| 2018 | 44-19 | 0.70 | 32-28 | 0.53 | 35-27 | 0.56 |
| 2019 | 45-18 | 0.71 | 24-36 | 0.40 | 27-33 | 0.45 |
| 2020 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2021* | 43-20 | 0.68 | 33-27 | 0.55 | – | – |
| Total | 179-72 | 0.71 | 123-117 | 0.51 | 104-81 | 0.56 |
| Year | 284 Total | Over Prob | ||
| Rec | % | Rec | % | |
| 2017 | 39-22 | 0.64 | 42-21 | 0.67 |
| 2018 | 38-25 | 0.60 | 36-27 | 0.58 |
| 2019 | 32-29 | 0.52 | 32-29 | 0.52 |
| 2020 | – | – | – | – |
| 2021* | 36-22 | 0.62 | – | – |
| Total | 145-98 | 0.60 | 110-77 | 0.59 |
* Note that we have modeled the 2021 tournament using a different data/methodology than in previous years due to the various irregularities caused by COVID this season. Applying the historical data/methodology would have been a bit of a “square peg round hole” situation due to these irregularities. So, we decided to model the 2021 tournament with a clean slate, using data only from the 2021 season to generate our models/predictions. Additionally, note that we will not be producing the Cover Probability and Over Probability models this year, so the “284 Spread” and “284 Total” will be our main focus for spreads and totals in 2021.
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