Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, Miami’s FPAE against QBs is 5.1, meaning that they gave up an average of 5.1 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. We give a full explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values against each position group for Week 1 of 2017 are shown below. These values were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).
- The tables below are intended to help identify good matchups for Week 1 – look for green ranks in the right-most columns.
- The “SD” columns represent standard deviations, or the variation in weekly points given up. Target teams with low standard deviations and high FPAE, which are colored green.
- For example, Tennessee vs. WRs has the 2nd highest FPAE and 8th lowest FPAE SD (i.e., give me all the Amari Cooper, who plays Tennessee this week)
- “FPA” columns represent raw Fantasy Points Allowed, without adjustment
- Since we are only in Week 1, keep in mind that some teams have seen major defensive changes since their last 7 games were played
