Category Archives: Hammer the Over

Man vs Model: NFL Week 4

Last week was a tough one for me. I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong 4 out of 6 times. I’d like to see the model take that kind of responsibility for its’ mistakes. I guess I’m just the bigger of the two men in this scenario. So after last week, the model and I are back in a deadlock and it’s time for me to dust myself off, look myself in the mirror, and get right back on the horse. So let’s get this thing started.

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Hammer The Over NFL Week 4 with Sam Walczak

The guys breakdown week 3 in the NFL, the Knicks trade that sent Melo to the Thunder, and the FBI’s sting on 5 college basketball programs. Tom Milne joins the pod to talk Vikings and Model CEO Sam Walczak brings the model aboard to preview the week 4 matchups.

Man vs Model – NFL Week 3

Okay so, not a whole lot of movement last week with a total record of 3-3. Had some good wins (Baltimore-Cleveland under) and some bad losses. Hand in the air on that Bears game. That one’s on me, I’ll be better. I still think the Bears are going to have some value this year but you just can’t win ’em all. That being said I absolutely STUFFED those nerds and their model in a locker, beating that soul-less machine senseless 2-1. Absolutely drubbed the model by one win. You know the old adage: the worst lead in trying to beat a predictive model in sports gambling is a two-win lead, so I feel pretty comfortable with my current one win lead. Love where I’m at heading into week 3 but I certainly don’t want to get complacent. I’ve got a lot of people (maybe 2) counting on me to deliver so the last thing I need is that classic Week 3 hangover. Gotta keep bumping, and grinding, and delivering gut based picks. So that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 3

Hammer The Over: MLB Expert Jack Werner

This week the guys recap week 2 of the NFL games, give their bold predictions after overreaction week, and discuss Kevin Durant’s twitter trolling tendencies. Jack Werner, Model 284 contributor, comes on the pod to talk MLB and Twins. Evan and Fred give their overs of the week and preview this week’s slate of games.

Man vs Model – NFL Week 2

Welcome back to another installment of Man vs Model. Last week I was 1-1 against the model with the under hitting easily in the Baltimore-Cincinnati game and the 49ers letting me down in a big way in a blowout loss to Carolina. All things considered, I’d say that’s not a bad start to my lifelong battle against the machine, but I’m not a huge fan of the idea of tying in general. Sports, and really anything in life, shouldn’t end in ties. Just defeats the purpose competing in the first place. We play until there’s a winner, or until they drag us off the field kicking, screaming, and covered in blood. So with that being said, we are gonna change things up a little bit in the format of this blog. First, I’ll be adding another game to my picks against the model. This way there is at least a clear cut winner between me and that cold, heartless machine. Additionally, I will be adding a couple of more picks that I like that aren’t necessarily in contrast to the model. Our numbers are right more than 50% of the time, so it would be foolish of me not to use the model with some of my picks. So without further ado, let’s get into it. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 2

Hammer The Over: NFL Week 1 Recap

The guys recap the first week of NFL action, cover the Cleveland Indians historic run, and dissect the possibilities of Stephon Marbury returning to the NBA at the age of 40. Minnesota superfan Tom Milne joins the podcast to give a review of the Vikings Monday Night Football win and preview their matchup with the Steelers. Segments include Over of the Week, Unwritten Rules, and Hate it or Love it.

Man vs Model – NFL Week 1

I’d like to preface this blog by making it clear that I am a firm backer of the model and will be making most of my gambling decisions with it in mind. I’ll be the first to admit that my best gambling run (March Madness weeks one and two of this year) was thanks in large part to this website’s model and its proficiency in predicting overs. Maybe even more importantly, the likelihood that I could one day quit my day job and work full time at Model 284 rests almost entirely in the model’s ability to predict the outcomes of football games. All of that being said, the model can’t get it all right. There are certain things that the model simply cannot account for. Do you think a model could have predicted the New Orleans Saints response to Hurricane Katrina upon their return to the Superdome in September of 2006? Could any model in the world predict when Eli Manning decides to blackout, channel his inner Joe Montana, and carry the Giants to a Superbowl? And don’t you dare tell me a model has the awareness to understand just what a color rush means to a seemingly meaningless Jaguars-Titans Thursday Night Football game. Point being, there are a lot of factors that the model can’t account for. This is where I come in. If the model is the Great Wall of China, think of me as the guy who is in charge of plugging all of the small cracks and holes that pop up along the wall. In a country that prides itself on its’ use of checks and balances, I’m here to remind the nerds of this company that sometimes the numbers do lie.
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Hammer The Over: Vikings Preview

The guys recap the first week of College football and look ahead to the first week of the NFL season. Minnesota sports superfan Tom Milne joins the pod to preview the Vikings season and give his two cents on what to expect out of each position group. Evan and Fred take a look at the spreads for week one and give their Over’s of the Week.

Hammer The Over: NFL Preview with Eric Eager

In this episode the guys cover the Vikings lackluster 3rd preseason performance, the hot second half of Byron Buxton, and a quick preview of college football week 1. Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus comes on the pod to give a preview of the upcoming NFL season and discuss his work for PFF. Segments include Hammer the Over’s Over of the Week, Unwritten Rules, and Call Ewald.

Hammer The Over: Fantasy Football Preview

The guys give their breakdown of the Kyrie trade, talk some NFL preseason, and preview the Mayweather/McGregor fight. Model 284 creator and contributor Sam Walczak comes on the show to discuss fantasy football and what to expect from the model this NFL season. Segments include I’d Rather Be Regular and Hammer the Over’s Over of the Week.