The following provides a breakdown of each region, showing the results from our simulation of 60,000 tournaments for each team in a given region. Our full bracket of predictions can be found here. The probabilities show the probability that each team has of advancing to each round of the tournament. For example, in the first row of the East Region table, we give Duke a 31% chance of reaching the Final Four.
Category Archives: March Madness
March Madness Full Bracket
The following bracket contains our consensus predictions for this year’s tournament. For each matchup, we considered predictions from all of our win probability and point spread models, as well as the results of a simulation of 60,000 tournaments.
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March Madness – 1st Round Betting
The following tables display our predicted point spreads and point totals for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the second row of the East Region table, our models have Wisconsin (-2.8) beating Virginia Tech by 2.8 points, and Vegas has Wisconsin (-5.5) beating Virginia Tech by 5.5 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Wisconsin-Virginia Tech game as 144.1 while Vegas has 137.
For more on the historical performance of our point spread and point total models, click here.
March Madness – 1st Round Probabilities
The following tables display our predicted probabilities for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row of the East Region table, our models give Villanova a 97% chance of beating Mount Saint Mary’s (and, conversely, Mount Saint Mary’s a 3% chance of beating Villanova). We have more content on the way, including 1st round point spreads and totals, as well as a look at how our numbers see the entire tournament field.
For more on our methodology, click here.
March Madness 2016 Recap
The 2016 tournament had good spots and bad – most notably Michigan State, whom my models ranked as the 1st/2nd best team in the field, but lost in their first game. Thankfully, there were some bright spots as well, led by Villanova, who was picked to win it all in only 2.5% of brackets submitted to ESPN, but my models had right up there with Michigan State as the 1st/2nd best team in the field. The sections below go into detail on some of the bigger hits and misses from the tournament as a whole, as well as the results for a few individual models.
Continue reading March Madness 2016 Recap