The table below provides our predictions for all games in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. The table will be updated after each round of the tournament, with new games/predictions added as they become available. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided above the table, and a summary of the historical accuracy of each model is provided at the end of the post. See our related posts on our Full 2022 Tournament Bracket and our Tournament Simulation results.
Continue reading Game Predictions | March Madness 2022 →

Below is our Model 284 consensus bracket for the 2022 NCAA Tournament. As you will see from our Game-by-Game Predictions and Tournament Simulation results, our bracket does not necessarily advance our model’s predicted winner for every single game. Rather, we use a combination of (1) our model’s individual game predictions, (2) our tournament simulation results, (3) injuries / other factors not captured by our models, and (4) consideration of public picks – to make sure we are differentiating our bracket enough from the most popular choices. For those interested, here is a bracket filled out purely using raw model output. Continue reading Model 284 Bracket | March Madness 2022 →

Here is an updated simulation after the first two rounds of play. Our initial simulation (pre-tournament) can be found here. We still have Gonzaga as the heavy favorite to win it all. Kansas and Purdue both saw their paths become much with losses for Auburn, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kentucky, and Baylor. As of 03/21/2022

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Model 284 March Madness Pool

The article below shows how our models view this year’s tournament field from a simulation perspective. Each table shows the % chance that each team advances to a given round of the tournament (e.g., in the first table, Gonzaga has a 92.5% chance of advancing to the 2nd round). These figures are calculated based on 5,000 simulations of this year’s tournament, which were performed using win probability and spread predictions from our models. See our related posts for our Full 2022 Tournament Bracket and our Game-by-Game Predictions. Continue reading Tournament Simulation | March Madness 2022 →