Game Predictions | March Madness 2019

Follow me

The tables below provide our predictions for all games in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The tables will be updated after each round of the tournament, with new games/predictions added as they become available. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided above each table, and a summary of the historical accuracy of each model is provided at the end of the post.

Win Probability & Spread Predictions

Win Probabilities – For each game, “Team1 Win Prob” represents our model’s probability that Team1 (the better-seeded team) wins the game. Probabilities below 50 indicate that Team2 is more likely to win the game.

Spreads – The “284 Spread” is our model’s prediction of how many points Team1 will win by. For both Vegas and 284 Spreads, negative values indicate Team1 is favored, while positives indicate Team2 is favored. The “Team1 Cover Prob” is our model’s probability that Team1 covers the Vegas Spread (a Cover Prob below 50 indicates that Team2 is more likely to cover than Team1). Note that our 284 Spread and Cover Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one predicts Team1 covers and the other predicts Team2 covers).

Team1	Team2	Rd	Team1 Win Prob	Vegas Spread	284 Spread	Team1 Cover Prob
1 Virginia	3 TX Tech	6	68	-1.5	-4.1	68
2 Mich St	3 TX Tech	5	69	-3	-3.4	62
1 Virginia	5 Auburn	5	41	-5.5	+0.5	26
1 Duke	2 Mich St	4	61	-2.5	-0.4	42
1 Gonzaga	3 TX Tech	4	85	-4.5	-10.1	66
1 Virginia	3 Purdue	4	70	-4	-4.3	53
2 UK	5 Auburn	4	39	-4	+3	23
1 Duke	4 VA Tech	3	75	-7	-3.5	39
2 Mich St	3 LSU	3	62	-6	+0.2	48
1 Gonzaga	4 FL St	3	67	-7.5	-3.7	27
2 Mich	3 TX Tech	3	79	-2	-4.1	68
1 Virginia	12 Oregon	3	62	-8.5	-4.5	32
2 Tenn	3 Purdue	3	72	-1	-3.6	72
1 UNC	5 Auburn	3	37	-5	+1.5	20
2 UK	3 Houston	3	53	-2.5	-1.7	38
1 Duke	9 UCF	2	96	-13	-14.2	43
4 VA Tech	12 Liberty	2	54	-9	-6.4	30
3 LSU	6 Maryland	2	69	-3	-6.2	56
2 Mich St	10 Minn	2	72	-10	-7.5	34
1 Gonzaga	9 Baylor	2	93	-14	-14.6	32
4 FL St	12 Murray St	2	90	-4.5	-11.6	80
3 TX Tech	6 Buffalo	2	44	-3.5	+0.9	36
2 Mich	10 FL	2	81	-6.5	-4.8	42
1 Virginia	9 Oklahoma	2	90	-11.5	-11.2	45
12 Oregon	13 UC Irvine	2	64	-5	-4.9	37
3 Purdue	6 Villanova	2	35	-3.5	+3.4	27
2 Tenn	10 Iowa	2	82	-8	-8.3	55
1 UNC	9 Wash	2	66	-11.5	-3.8	23
4 Kansas	5 Auburn	2	28	+2	+4.2	38
3 Houston	11 Ohio St	2	82	-5.5	-8	53
2 UK	7 Wofford	2	69	-5	-3	39
1 Duke	16 NDSU	1	97	-27	-20.7	33
8 VCU	9 UCF	1	67	+1	-6.6	72
5 Miss St	12 Liberty	1	62	-6.5	-7.9	45
4 VA Tech	13 St Louis	1	45	-10.5	-3.8	18
6 Maryland	11 Belmont	1	78	-3	-4.5	56
3 LSU	14 Yale	1	97	-7.5	-19.1	84
7 Louisville	10 Minn	1	32	-5	0	27
2 Mich St	15 Bradley	1	91	-18	-17.1	44
1 Gonzaga	16 Fair Dick	1	98	-27.5	-24.7	51
8 Syracuse	9 Baylor	1	74	-2	-2.8	48
5 Marquette	12 Murray St	1	84	-4.5	-6.9	61
4 Florida St	13 Vermont	1	83	-9	-10.6	53
6 Buffalo	11 AZ St	1	68	-6.5	-5.2	39
3 Texas Tech	14 North KY	1	83	-14	-8.5	31
7 Nevada	10 Florida	1	67	-2	-2.7	55
2 Michigan	15 Montana	1	93	-15.5	-12.4	30
1 Virginia	16 G Webb	1	90	-23.5	-18.3	63
8 Ole Miss	9 Oklahoma	1	65	-1.5	-5.3	64
5 Wisconsin	12 Oregon	1	38	-1.5	+3.2	26
4 Kansas St	13 UC Irvine	1	53	-4.5	-2.2	26
6 Villanova	11 Sr Marys	1	70	-5.5	-5	39
3 Purdue	14 Old Dom	1	74	-12.5	-9.4	31
7 Cincinnati	10 Iowa	1	61	-3.5	+0.1	45
2 Tennessee	15 Colgate	1	87	-17.5	-11.6	35
1 UNC	16 Iona	1	99	-24.5	-22.9	56
8 Utah St	9 Wash	1	33	-2.5	+6.4	35
5 Auburn	12 N Mex St	1	90	-6	-10	55
4 Kansas	13 Neastern	1	78	-6.5	-6.6	55
6 Iowa St	11 Ohio St	1	81	-5.5	-7.9	50
3 Houston	14 Georgia St	1	91	-12	-10.6	41
7 Wofford	10 Seton Hall	1	72	-2.5	-5.9	58
2 Kentucky	15 Abil Christ	1	83	-22	-11.4	29
16 NDSU	16 NC Central	0	36	-5	+1.9	24
11 Belmont	11 Temple	0	41	-3	+0.9	44
16 Fair Dick	16 Prair View	0	46	-1.5	-0.8	39
11 AZ St	11 St Johns	0	43	-1	+0.7	37

Total Predictions

The Vegas Total can be compared to our “284 Total” (our model’s prediction of how many points will be scored in the game) as well as our “Over Prob” (our model’s probability that the game goes over the Vegas Total). An Over Prob below 50 indicates that an Under is more likely. Note that our 284 Total and Over Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one predicts over and the other predicts under):

Team1	Team2	Rd	Vegas Total	284 Total	Over Prob
1 Virginia	3 TX Tech	6	118	122.1	58.0
2 Mich St	3 TX Tech	5	133	135.2	53.8
1 Virginia	5 Auburn	5	130.5	135.9	65.0
1 Duke	2 Mich St	4	150	147.4	45.6
1 Gonzaga	3 TX Tech	4	140	141.6	53.3
1 Virginia	3 Purdue	4	127	131.3	58.1
2 UK	5 Auburn	4	142	142.7	53.1
1 Duke	4 VA Tech	3	144.5	144.3	48.6
2 Mich St	3 LSU	3	149	154.3	59.6
1 Gonzaga	4 FL St	3	147.5	142.5	37.1
2 Mich	3 TX Tech	3	125	126.4	50.4
1 Virginia	12 Oregon	3	118	126.3	65.8
2 Tenn	3 Purdue	3	146.5	150.4	61.3
1 UNC	5 Auburn	3	163	166.2	64
2 UK	3 Houston	3	135.5	132.3	39.6
1 Duke	9 UCF	2	143.5	145.9	52
4 VA Tech	12 Liberty	2	126	128	51
3 LSU	6 Maryland	2	147	146.3	53
2 Mich St	10 Minn	2	142	146.9	55
1 Gonzaga	9 Baylor	2	148	143.5	40
4 FL St	12 Murray St	2	145	145.3	51
3 TX Tech	6 Buffalo	2	146	149.4	62
2 Mich	10 FL	2	123	127.9	57
1 Virginia	9 Oklahoma	2	127.5	128.2	51
12 Oregon	13 UC Irvine	2	123	121.9	43
3 Purdue	6 Villanova	2	137	148.1	57
2 Tenn	10 Iowa	2	156	165.5	76
1 UNC	9 Wash	2	147.5	150.8	56
4 Kansas	5 Auburn	2	147.5	150.5	56
3 Houston	11 Ohio St	2	131.5	130.7	48
2 UK	7 Wofford	2	139.5	137.1	48
1 Duke	16 NDSU	1	148.5	151.5	56
8 VCU	9 UCF	1	126.5	133	52
5 Miss St	12 Liberty	1	134	136.6	45
4 VA Tech	13 St Louis	1	126	126	50
6 Maryland	11 Belmont	1	148	145.3	44
3 LSU	14 Yale	1	156.5	156	43
7 Louisville	10 Minn	1	136	137.3	51
2 Mich St	15 Bradley	1	133.5	139.8	54
1 Gonzaga	16 Fair Dick	1	152.5	152.4	49
8 Syracuse	9 Baylor	1	131.5	126.5	42
5 Marquette	12 Murray St	1	149.5	147.8	50
4 Florida St	13 Vermont	1	133.5	138.4	52
6 Buffalo	11 AZ St	1	155.5	161.9	65
3 Texas Tech	14 North KY	1	137.5	136.1	49
7 Nevada	10 Florida	1	133	140.8	66
2 Michigan	15 Montana	1	130.5	136.8	54
1 Virginia	16 G Webb	1	130.5	138.5	60
8 Ole Miss	9 Oklahoma	1	142.5	141.4	43
5 Wisconsin	12 Oregon	1	117	125.4	62
4 Kansas St	13 UC Irvine	1	119	123.5	62
6 Villanova	11 Sr Marys	1	130.5	127.4	50
3 Purdue	14 Old Dom	1	126	129.5	49
7 Cincinnati	10 Iowa	1	138	149.6	67
2 Tennessee	15 Colgate	1	148	157.3	61
1 UNC	16 Iona	1	166	169.3	58
8 Utah St	9 Wash	1	135	143.2	63
5 Auburn	12 N Mex St	1	146	140.5	38
4 Kansas	13 Neastern	1	143	148.9	51
6 Iowa St	11 Ohio St	1	140.5	136.3	48
3 Houston	14 Georgia St	1	141.5	150.8	70
7 Wofford	10 Seton Hall	1	142.5	141.3	48
2 Kentucky	15 Abil Christ	1	132	123.3	39
16 NDSU	16 NC Central	0	133	126.5	41
11 Belmont	11 Temple	0	155.5	159.3	54
16 Fair Dick	16 Prair View	0	149	147.4	47
11 AZ St	11 St Johns	0	152.5	149.8	48

Model Accuracy

Below is a summary of how each individual model performed on all 2017-2019 tournament games, with 2019 results being added to the tables as they become available. Note that spread/cover and total/over models are graded against the numbers as they are shown in the tables above. Additionally, links to detailed recaps of all predictions from the 2017 and 2018 tournaments can be found directly below:

Year	Win Prob		284 Spread		Cover Prob
Year	Rec	%	Rec	%	Rec	%
2017	47-15	0.76	34-26	0.57	42-21	0.67
2018	44-19	0.70	32-28	0.53	35-27	0.56
2019	45-18	0.71	24-36	0.40	27-33	0.45
Total	136-52	0.72	90-90	0.50	104-81	0.56

Year	284 Total		Over Prob
Year	Rec	%	Rec	%
2017	39-22	0.64	42-21	0.67
2018	38-25	0.60	36-27	0.58
2019	32-29	0.52	32-29	0.52
Total	109-76	0.59	110-77	0.59

Model 284

Analyzing sports through math and models

Game Predictions | March Madness 2019

Win Probability & Spread Predictions

Total Predictions

Model Accuracy

2017 Predictions Recap

2018 Predictions Recap

62 thoughts on “Game Predictions | March Madness 2019”