NBA Role Probability Model is used to predict the likelihood that a given college basketball player becomes an NBA All-Star, Starter, Bench player, or does not make the NBA. The model uses individual college basketball season-long box score statistics, team-level statistics (e.g. strength of schedule), physical measurements, high school scouting ranking, position, and age/experience to predict the probability of each NBA role. For more detail on this model, see here. In the following table, you can find our predicted probabilities for the 2016 NBA Draft prospects landing in each category:
| Player | All-Star | Starter | Bench | Non NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | 84.1% | 13.2% | < 1% | 2.3% |
| Dejounte Murray | 47.9% | 18.1% | < 1% | 35.1% |
| Wade Baldwin | 44.8% | 9.7% | 31.2% | 14.3% |
| Brandon Ingram | 34.2% | 27.3% | 23.2% | 15.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | 30.9% | 25.9% | 21.1% | 22.1% |
| Kris Dunn | 30.7% | 28.5% | 7.4% | 33.4% |
| Denzel Valentine | 27.8% | 42.6% | 18.2% | 11.4% |
| Jakob Poeltl | 25.2% | 26.3% | 33.1% | 15.3% |
| Kay Felder | 20.7% | 39.9% | 22.2% | 17.2% |
| Patrick McCaw | 20.6% | 50.8% | 19.3% | 9.3% |
| Chinanu Onuaku | 18.8% | 36.4% | 18.8% | 26.0% |
| Henry Ellenson | 18.1% | 40.5% | 28.5% | 13.0% |
| Caris LeVert | 15.8% | 20.1% | 32.4% | 31.7% |
| Domantas Sabonis | 13.9% | 36.7% | 32.2% | 17.2% |
| Brice Johnson | 12.8% | 34.8% | 20.7% | 31.6% |
| Pascal Siakam | 12.0% | 18.8% | 31.4% | 37.8% |
| Malik Beasley | 11.2% | 29.2% | 22.1% | 37.4% |
| DeAndre Bembry | 11.1% | 30.8% | 18.7% | 39.3% |
| Tyrone Wallace | 10.8% | 17.7% | 17.0% | 54.5% |
| Isaiah Whitehead | 10.0% | 19.0% | 32.4% | 38.6% |
| Marquesse Chriss | 8.7% | 37.85 | 34.2% | 19.4% |
| Stephen Zimmerman | 8.1% | 29.0% | 44.8% | 18.1% |
| Buddy Hield | 7.8% | 27.3% | 40.8% | 24.1% |
| Joel Bolomboy | 7.5% | 11.5% | 34.9% | 46.2% |
| Daniel Hamilton | 7.4% | 41.3% | 17.6% | 33.7% |
| Tyler Ulis | 6.0% | 33.6% | 36.9% | 23.5% |
| Demetrius Jackson | 5.7% | 28.2% | 36.3% | 29.8% |
| Deyonta Davis | 5.7% | 23.4% | 32.0% | 38.9% |
| Ben Bentil | 5.6% | 17.9% | 54.5% | 22.0% |
| A.J. Hammons | 5.6% | 23.0% | 46.8% | 24.6% |
| Malachi Richardson | 5.0% | 7.6% | 23.4% | 64.0% |
| Jamal Murray | 4.2% | 29.8% | 39.9% | 26.0% |
| Damion Jones | 3.8% | 14.8% | 41.8% | 39.5% |
| Diamond Stone | 3.7% | 35.0% | 45.4% | 15.9% |
| Abdel Nader | 2.4% | 10.9% | 34.5% | 52.2% |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 2.4% | 23.4% | 47.1% | 27.1% |
| Isaiah Cousins | 2.3% | 10.2% | 27.5% | 60.0% |
| Michael Gbinije | 2.0% | 20.3% | 41.0% | 36.7% |
| Georges Niang | 1.5% | 46.4% | 31.0% | 21.2% |
| Marcus Paige | 1.4% | 9.0% | 32.6% | 57.1% |
| Skal Labissiere | 1.3% | 19.5% | 52.5% | 26.7% |
| Taurean Prince | 0.7% | 19.8% | 35.7% | 43.7% |
| Kyle Wiltjer | 0.5% | 7.8% | 49.4% | 42.2% |
| Jake Layman | 0.4% | 26.7% | 47.5% | 25.4% |
Created by Marc Richards and Jack Werner.