A Look at the Brady-Belichick Super Bowls

Football, NFL Playoffs

This will be the 7th Super Bowl that the Brady-Belichick Patriots have played. While everyone remembers that they are 4-2 in Super Bowls, with both losses coming at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants, we took a quick look at other takeaways from those 6 games.

Game Results

Year Opp W/L Spread Total Pts Opp Pts Total Pts MOV
2016 ATL – -3.0 59.0 – – – –
2014 SEA W -1.0 47.0 28 24 52 -4
2011 NYG L -3.0 53.0 17 21 38 +4
2007 NYG L -12.5 54.5 14 17 31 +3
2004 PHI W -7.0 47.0 24 21 45 -3
2003 CAR W -7.0 38.0 32 29 61 -3
2001 STL W +14.0 53.0 20 17 37 -3
Avg – 4-2 -2.8 50.2 23 22 44 -1

Highlights

  • All 6 games had a margin of victory of 4 points or less
  • New England was 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in these games, only covering the Seattle game (where they were 1-pt favorites) and the St. Louis game (where they were 14-pt underdogs)
  • These games have generally been lower scoring than expected, with an average of only 44 points scored, despite an average total of 49 points
    • Only 2 of 6 games went over the total
    • All 3 games with totals above 50 went under, finishing with 38, 31, and 37 points scored
    • The Patriots have scored a total of 0 points in the first quarter of all 6 games combined. Here are the average points scored for each quarter and half of NE Super Bowls:
      Tm Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1st H 2nd H Total
      NE 0.0 11.0 2.8 8.7 11.0 11.5 22.5
      OPP 2.5 5.2 3.8 10.0 7.7 13.8 21.5
  • This doesn’t have much relevance to the Super Bowl itself, but NE Super Bowl teams went an incredible 53-3 (95%) and 34-21-1 ATS (62%) combined in the 8 games leading up to the Super Bowl
  • In the 2 seasons in which they lost the Super Bowl (2007 and 2011), the Patriots went just 5-11 ATS (31%) combined leading up to the game, compared to 22-9-1 ATS (70%) combined for their winning Super Bowl seasons. This year, the Patriots are 7-1 ATS  (88%) in their last 8 games.
  • The Falcons will be the highest scoring offense that the Patriots have faced in the Super Bowl (averaging 37.6 PPG in their last 8 games). The next closest team was the 2001 Rams, who averaged 35.1 PPG in their last 8 games leading up to the Super Bowl – the Patriots held them to 17 points.