The following table contains our spread and total predictions for each NFL game. We will update this post with new predictions/matchups each week and keep track of how our models perform against the closing Vegas lines for each game. Our models are built using a combination of variables, including our Elo Ratings, Vegas spreads/totals, situational factors, team statistics (from a team’s last 7 games played), historical QB rating of the starting QBs, and more. Our predictions are generated as a composite (i.e., the average of multiple models). We are working on a more detailed write up on our modeling methodology that we will eventually link in here.
2018 – Super Bowl
| Hm | Aw | Wk | Vegas Spread | Our Spread | Vegas Total | Our Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | LAR | 21 | -2.5 | -3.5 | 57.5 | 56.5 |
| KC | NE | 20 | -3 | -4.5 | 56.5 | 55.5 |
| NO | LAR | 20 | -3 | -5 | 57 | 56.5 |
| KC | IND | 19 | -5.5 | -7 | 57 | 54.5 |
| LAR | DAL | 19 | -7 | -8.5 | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| NE | LAC | 19 | -4 | -3 | 47 | 49 |
| NO | PHI | 19 | -8 | -9 | 50.5 | 51.5 |
| CHI | PHI | 18 | -6.5 | -6 | 41.5 | 43.5 |
| DAL | SEA | 18 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 43 | 46 |
| HTX | CLT | 18 | -2 | -2 | 48.5 | 50 |
| RAV | SDG | 18 | -3 | -2 | 43 | 43 |
| BUF | MIA | 17 | -5.5 | -4 | 39.5 | 36.5 |
| DEN | SDG | 17 | +7 | +8.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 |
| GNB | DET | 17 | -7.5 | -6.5 | 44.5 | 39 |
| HTX | JAX | 17 | -7 | -8 | 39.5 | 40 |
| KAN | RAI | 17 | -14.5 | -16 | 52.5 | 48.5 |
| MIN | CHI | 17 | -6 | -5 | 40.5 | 41 |
| NOR | CAR | 17 | -8 | -9 | 42 | 42 |
| NWE | NYJ | 17 | -14.5 | -14.5 | 46.5 | 47 |
| NYG | DAL | 17 | -7.5 | -7 | 38.5 | 39.5 |
| OTI | CLT | 17 | +5.5 | +6 | 42.5 | 39.5 |
| PIT | CIN | 17 | -14 | -13 | 45 | 44.5 |
| RAM | SFO | 17 | -10.5 | -9.5 | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| RAV | CLE | 17 | -7 | -7 | 41 | 43.5 |
| SEA | KAN | 16 | +1 | 0 | 54.5 | 55.5 |
| SEA | CRD | 17 | -14 | -17 | 39.5 | 37 |
| TAM | ATL | 17 | +2.5 | +3 | 51.5 | 49.5 |
| WAS | PHI | 17 | +6 | +7 | 42.5 | 44 |
| CAR | ATL | 16 | +3 | +3.5 | 46 | 45.5 |
| CLE | CIN | 16 | -10 | -10 | 44 | 43.5 |
| CLT | NYG | 16 | -10 | -10.5 | 48.5 | 51 |
| CRD | RAM | 16 | +14.5 | +15 | 43 | 43.5 |
| DAL | TAM | 16 | -7.5 | -7.5 | 48 | 49 |
| DET | MIN | 16 | +6.5 | +5 | 42.5 | 45 |
| MIA | JAX | 16 | -3 | -3.5 | 39.5 | 40.5 |
| NOR | PIT | 16 | -6.5 | -8 | 53 | 53.5 |
| NWE | BUF | 16 | -13.5 | -14.5 | 45 | 42 |
| NYJ | GNB | 16 | +3 | +4 | 47.5 | 49 |
| OTI | WAS | 16 | -11.5 | -10.5 | 37.5 | 38 |
| PHI | HTX | 16 | -1 | -1.5 | 46.5 | 47.5 |
| RAI | DEN | 16 | +2.5 | +4 | 42.5 | 39.5 |
| SDG | RAV | 16 | -4 | -6 | 42.5 | 46.5 |
| SFO | CHI | 16 | +4 | +3 | 44 | 45.5 |
| ATL | CRD | 15 | -10 | -13 | 43.5 | 44 |
| BUF | DET | 15 | -2.5 | -2 | 40 | 39.5 |
| CAR | NOR | 15 | +6 | +7 | 50.5 | 51.5 |
| CHI | GNB | 15 | -5.5 | -4 | 46.5 | 46.5 |
| CIN | RAI | 15 | -3 | -3.5 | 46 | 47 |
| CLT | DAL | 15 | -3 | -4.5 | 46.5 | 47.5 |
| DEN | CLE | 15 | -1 | -2.5 | 47 | 50.5 |
| JAX | WAS | 15 | -7.5 | -8 | 36.5 | 38 |
| KAN | SDG | 15 | -3.5 | -3 | 54 | 52.5 |
| MIN | MIA | 15 | -7.5 | -8 | 45 | 44.5 |
| NYG | OTI | 15 | +2.5 | +1.5 | 42 | 44.5 |
| NYJ | HTX | 15 | +7 | +6 | 44 | 44.5 |
| PIT | NWE | 15 | +2.5 | +2 | 56 | 57 |
| RAM | PHI | 15 | -13.5 | -13 | 52.5 | 53 |
| RAV | TAM | 15 | -8.5 | -9 | 45 | 45 |
| SFO | SEA | 15 | +3.5 | +6 | 44 | 42 |
| BUF | NYJ | 14 | -4.5 | -3.5 | 37 | 37.5 |
| CHI | RAM | 14 | +3 | +3.5 | 51 | 53.5 |
| CLE | CAR | 14 | +1 | +1.5 | 47.5 | 50 |
| CRD | DET | 14 | +2.5 | +1.5 | 40.5 | 41.5 |
| DAL | PHI | 14 | -3.5 | -2.5 | 45.5 | 45 |
| GNB | ATL | 14 | -4 | -4 | 50.5 | 52 |
| HTX | CLT | 14 | -4 | -4 | 49 | 48.5 |
| KAN | RAV | 14 | -6.5 | -8.5 | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| MIA | NWE | 14 | +9.5 | +11 | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| OTI | JAX | 14 | -5.5 | -5 | 37.5 | 36.5 |
| RAI | PIT | 14 | +10.5 | +11.5 | 51 | 51 |
| SDG | CIN | 14 | -17 | -18 | 48.5 | 51 |
| SEA | MIN | 14 | -3 | -5.5 | 45.5 | 46 |
| SFO | DEN | 14 | +3 | +2.5 | 45.5 | 46 |
| TAM | NOR | 14 | +10 | +11.5 | 54 | 52.5 |
| WAS | NYG | 14 | +3 | +2.5 | 40.5 | 42.5 |
| ATL | RAV | 13 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 46.5 | 49.5 |
| CIN | DEN | 13 | +4 | +3.5 | 45 | 43 |
| DAL | NOR | 13 | +7.5 | +7 | 51.5 | 53 |
| DET | RAM | 13 | +10.5 | +11 | 54 | 58.5 |
| GNB | CRD | 13 | -13.5 | -14 | 41 | 39.5 |
| HTX | CLE | 13 | -5 | -5.5 | 47.5 | 49.5 |
| JAX | CLT | 13 | +4 | +4 | 45.5 | 43.5 |
| MIA | BUF | 13 | -3.5 | -4 | 40 | 39 |
| NWE | MIN | 13 | -6 | -8.5 | 49.5 | 48.5 |
| NYG | CHI | 13 | +4 | +3.5 | 44 | 45.5 |
| OTI | NYJ | 13 | -10.5 | -10.5 | 40.5 | 38 |
| PHI | WAS | 13 | -5.5 | -5 | 45 | 43 |
| PIT | SDG | 13 | -3 | -4 | 52.5 | 51.5 |
| RAI | KAN | 13 | +14 | +17 | 53.5 | 54.5 |
| SEA | SFO | 13 | -10 | -11 | 45.5 | 47 |
| TAM | CAR | 13 | +3.5 | +4.5 | 52 | 49 |
| BUF | JAX | 12 | +3 | +2.5 | 36.5 | 38.5 |
| CAR | SEA | 12 | -3 | -2.5 | 46.5 | 47 |
| CIN | CLE | 12 | +1 | +1.5 | 46.5 | 45 |
| CLT | MIA | 12 | -9 | -7.5 | 52.5 | 52 |
| DAL | WAS | 12 | -7 | -7 | 40 | 39.5 |
| DEN | PIT | 12 | +3 | +4.5 | 47.5 | 49.5 |
| DET | CHI | 12 | +3 | +2 | 43 | 46.5 |
| HTX | OTI | 12 | -3.5 | -2.5 | 42.5 | 45 |
| MIN | GNB | 12 | -3.5 | -3 | 48 | 49 |
| NOR | ATL | 12 | -11.5 | -12 | 61.5 | 61 |
| NYJ | NWE | 12 | +13 | +15.5 | 46.5 | 48.5 |
| PHI | NYG | 12 | -4.5 | -5.5 | 49 | 49 |
| RAV | RAI | 12 | -13 | -13 | 42 | 42 |
| SDG | CRD | 12 | -14 | -17 | 43 | 43 |
| TAM | SFO | 12 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 54.5 | 53.5 |
| ATL | DAL | 11 | -3.5 | -5.5 | 50 | 50.5 |
| CHI | MIN | 11 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 44 | 41 |
| CLT | OTI | 11 | -1 | -1 | 50 | 50 |
| CRD | RAI | 11 | -4.5 | -4.5 | 41 | 43.5 |
| DET | CAR | 11 | +4 | +4.5 | 48 | 52 |
| JAX | PIT | 11 | +4 | +5 | 47 | 48.5 |
| NOR | PHI | 11 | -7 | -8 | 56.5 | 57 |
| NYG | TAM | 11 | -3 | -2 | 53.5 | 54 |
| RAM | KAN | 11 | -3 | -2.5 | 63.5 | 64 |
| RAV | CIN | 11 | -6.5 | -4.5 | 44 | 44.5 |
| SDG | DEN | 11 | -7.5 | -8 | 46.5 | 45.5 |
| SEA | GNB | 11 | -3 | -5.5 | 49 | 51 |
| WAS | HTX | 11 | +3 | +1.5 | 40.5 | 43.5 |
| CHI | DET | 10 | -7.5 | -6 | 44.5 | 40 |
| CIN | NOR | 10 | +6 | +5.5 | 53.5 | 51.5 |
| CLE | ATL | 10 | +5.5 | +7.5 | 49.5 | 50 |
| CLT | JAX | 10 | -3 | -2.5 | 48 | 48 |
| GNB | MIA | 10 | -11 | -11 | 48.5 | 49 |
| KAN | CRD | 10 | -16.5 | -19.5 | 49.5 | 47 |
| NYJ | BUF | 10 | -7 | -8.5 | 38 | 36.5 |
| OTI | NWE | 10 | +6.5 | +6.5 | 47 | 50 |
| PHI | DAL | 10 | -7.5 | -9 | 45.5 | 48 |
| PIT | CAR | 10 | -3.5 | -5 | 51 | 53.5 |
| RAI | SDG | 10 | +10.5 | +12 | 50 | 46.5 |
| RAM | SEA | 10 | -10 | -9.5 | 51 | 47 |
| SFO | NYG | 10 | -3 | -3 | 45 | 45.5 |
| TAM | WAS | 10 | -3.5 | -4 | 51 | 51 |
| BUF | CHI | 9 | +10.5 | +10 | 38 | 41.5 |
| CAR | TAM | 9 | -6 | -4.5 | 55.5 | 53.5 |
| CLE | KAN | 9 | +7.5 | +10.5 | 51.5 | 52 |
| DAL | OTI | 9 | -4.5 | -4 | 40.5 | 43.5 |
| DEN | HTX | 9 | -1 | -2.5 | 46.5 | 48 |
| MIA | NYJ | 9 | -3 | -2.5 | 43 | 39 |
| MIN | DET | 9 | -4.5 | -4 | 47.5 | 49 |
| NOR | RAM | 9 | +1.5 | +0.5 | 57 | 58 |
| NWE | GNB | 9 | -5 | -6.5 | 56 | 56.5 |
| RAV | PIT | 9 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 46.5 | 46.5 |
| SEA | SDG | 9 | -1 | 0 | 48 | 50.5 |
| SFO | RAI | 9 | +1.5 | +0.5 | 44 | 41.5 |
| WAS | ATL | 9 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 46.5 | 50 |
| BUF | NWE | 8 | +13.5 | +16 | 44.5 | 46 |
| CAR | RAV | 8 | +2.5 | +2 | 44 | 46 |
| CHI | NYJ | 8 | -8.5 | -8 | 42.5 | 41.5 |
| CIN | TAM | 8 | -3.5 | -4 | 55 | 52.5 |
| CRD | SFO | 8 | +2.5 | +3.5 | 40 | 44 |
| DET | SEA | 8 | -3 | -2 | 48 | 48.5 |
| HTX | MIA | 8 | -7.5 | -8 | 45 | 49 |
| JAX | PHI | 8 | +3.5 | +7.5 | 44 | 45 |
| KAN | DEN | 8 | -8.5 | -8.5 | 53 | 51.5 |
| MIN | NOR | 8 | +2.5 | +2.5 | 53.5 | 55 |
| NYG | WAS | 8 | +1 | +2.5 | 44 | 42 |
| PIT | CLE | 8 | -8.5 | -11.5 | 47.5 | 45 |
| RAI | CLT | 8 | +3.5 | +2 | 51 | 50 |
| RAM | GNB | 8 | -7.5 | -9.5 | 57 | 54 |
| ATL | NYG | 7 | -4.5 | -7 | 52 | 51 |
| CHI | NWE | 7 | +1 | +2 | 48.5 | 52 |
| CLT | BUF | 7 | -7 | -7 | 43.5 | 45 |
| CRD | DEN | 7 | +1 | +0.5 | 42.5 | 47.5 |
| JAX | HTX | 7 | -3.5 | -5 | 42.5 | 41.5 |
| KAN | CIN | 7 | -6.5 | -9 | 56 | 56 |
| MIA | DET | 7 | +3 | +1.5 | 47 | 45 |
| NYJ | MIN | 7 | +3.5 | +3.5 | 45 | 46.5 |
| PHI | CAR | 7 | -5 | -6 | 45 | 46 |
| RAV | NOR | 7 | -2.5 | -2.5 | 49 | 47 |
| SDG | OTI | 7 | -6.5 | -4 | 46 | 46 |
| SFO | RAM | 7 | +8 | +10.5 | 52 | 49 |
| TAM | CLE | 7 | -3.5 | -6.5 | 52.5 | 50 |
| WAS | DAL | 7 | +1 | +1 | 40.5 | 40.5 |
| ATL | TAM | 6 | -3 | -2.5 | 57 | 55 |
| CIN | PIT | 6 | -1.5 | +1 | 49.5 | 51 |
| CLE | SDG | 6 | -1 | +2 | 47 | 46.5 |
| DAL | JAX | 6 | +3 | +2.5 | 39 | 41.5 |
| DEN | RAM | 6 | +7 | +7.5 | 50 | 52 |
| GNB | SFO | 6 | -9 | -9.5 | 46.5 | 48.5 |
| HTX | BUF | 6 | -10.5 | -10 | 40.5 | 42 |
| MIA | CHI | 6 | +7.5 | +5.5 | 40.5 | 39.5 |
| MIN | CRD | 6 | -10 | -12 | 43.5 | 45 |
| NWE | KAN | 6 | -3.5 | -3 | 59.5 | 58.5 |
| NYG | PHI | 6 | +1.5 | +3.5 | 45 | 46.5 |
| NYJ | CLT | 6 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 47.5 | 49.5 |
| OTI | RAV | 6 | +2.5 | +2 | 43.5 | 46 |
| RAI | SEA | 6 | +3 | +2 | 48 | 45.5 |
| WAS | CAR | 6 | +1 | +0.5 | 44.5 | 49 |
| BUF | OTI | 5 | +6 | +5 | 38.5 | 40.5 |
| CAR | NYG | 5 | -7 | -8 | 43.5 | 45.5 |
| CIN | MIA | 5 | -6.5 | -4 | 47.5 | 48.5 |
| CLE | RAV | 5 | +3 | +5.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 |
| DET | GNB | 5 | -1 | 0 | 50 | 50.5 |
| HTX | DAL | 5 | -3.5 | -4 | 45.5 | 47 |
| KAN | JAX | 5 | -3 | -3 | 48 | 48 |
| NOR | WAS | 5 | -5.5 | -7 | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| NWE | CLT | 5 | -10.5 | -12 | 49.5 | 49 |
| NYJ | DEN | 5 | -1 | 0 | 43 | 45.5 |
| PHI | MIN | 5 | -3.5 | -5 | 48 | 49.5 |
| PIT | ATL | 5 | -3.5 | -4 | 57 | 55 |
| SDG | RAI | 5 | -5 | -5 | 52 | 48 |
| SEA | RAM | 5 | +7.5 | +8.5 | 50.5 | 52.5 |
| SFO | CRD | 5 | -3 | -4 | 40.5 | 35.5 |
| ATL | CIN | 4 | -3.5 | -4 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| CHI | TAM | 4 | -3 | -1.5 | 46 | 49.5 |
| CLT | HTX | 4 | +1 | -0.5 | 48 | 48 |
| CRD | SEA | 4 | +3.5 | +5 | 40 | 40.5 |
| DAL | DET | 4 | -2.5 | -5.5 | 43.5 | 44 |
| DEN | KAN | 4 | +3.5 | +3 | 53.5 | 51.5 |
| GNB | BUF | 4 | -8.5 | -9.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 |
| JAX | NYJ | 4 | -7.5 | -8 | 40.5 | 40.5 |
| NWE | MIA | 4 | -6.5 | -6 | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| NYG | NOR | 4 | +3.5 | +4 | 51.5 | 53.5 |
| OTI | PHI | 4 | +3 | +2.5 | 41.5 | 43 |
| PIT | RAV | 4 | -3 | -3 | 51 | 52 |
| RAI | CLE | 4 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 |
| RAM | MIN | 4 | -7.5 | -9.5 | 48.5 | 48.5 |
| SDG | SFO | 4 | -10.5 | -11.5 | 46 | 47 |
| ATL | NOR | 3 | -1.5 | -2 | 54 | 54.5 |
| CAR | CIN | 3 | -2.5 | -2.5 | 44 | 45.5 |
| CLE | NYJ | 3 | -3 | -3.5 | 41 | 38 |
| CRD | CHI | 3 | +5.5 | +3 | 39 | 43.5 |
| DET | NWE | 3 | +7 | +8 | 55 | 56.5 |
| HTX | NYG | 3 | -6.5 | -7.5 | 44 | 46 |
| JAX | OTI | 3 | -10 | -9 | 39 | 39.5 |
| KAN | SFO | 3 | -5.5 | -5.5 | 53 | 51.5 |
| MIA | RAI | 3 | -3 | -3.5 | 46 | 45.5 |
| MIN | BUF | 3 | -16.5 | -16.5 | 41 | 42 |
| PHI | CLT | 3 | -6.5 | -7.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| RAM | SDG | 3 | -7.5 | -7.5 | 49 | 50 |
| RAV | DEN | 3 | -5.5 | -6 | 46 | 43.5 |
| SEA | DAL | 3 | -1 | -2.5 | 40 | 43.5 |
| TAM | PIT | 3 | -1 | -1 | 55 | 54 |
| WAS | GNB | 3 | +2.5 | +3.5 | 45.5 | 50 |
| ATL | CAR | 2 | -5.5 | -7 | 44 | 45 |
| BUF | SDG | 2 | +7.5 | +6 | 41.5 | 42 |
| CHI | SEA | 2 | -4.5 | -2.5 | 42.5 | 46 |
| CIN | RAV | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 43 | 45.5 |
| DAL | NYG | 2 | -3 | -4 | 42 | 41.5 |
| DEN | RAI | 2 | -5.5 | -4.5 | 44 | 43 |
| GNB | MIN | 2 | +2 | +0.5 | 45 | 43.5 |
| JAX | NWE | 2 | +2 | +2 | 44.5 | 44 |
| NOR | CLE | 2 | -10 | -10.5 | 51 | 50.5 |
| NYJ | MIA | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 43 | 44 |
| OTI | HTX | 2 | +3.5 | +3 | 41 | 37 |
| PIT | KAN | 2 | -4.5 | -5.5 | 52 | 51 |
| RAM | CRD | 2 | -13.5 | -14.5 | 43.5 | 42 |
| SFO | DET | 2 | -6 | -7.5 | 48.5 | 47.5 |
| TAM | PHI | 2 | +3 | +2.5 | 46.5 | 45 |
| WAS | CLT | 2 | -6 | -6.5 | 48 | 50.5 |
| CAR | DAL | 1 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 42.5 | 44 |
| CLE | PIT | 1 | +3.5 | +4 | 41 | 40.5 |
| CLT | CIN | 1 | +1 | +0.5 | 47.5 | 48.5 |
| CRD | WAS | 1 | -2 | -2.5 | 43.5 | 47 |
| DEN | SEA | 1 | -3 | -2 | 42.5 | 44 |
| DET | NYJ | 1 | -7 | -7 | 44 | 45.5 |
| GNB | CHI | 1 | -6.5 | -8 | 45 | 41 |
| MIA | OTI | 1 | +1 | +0.5 | 43.5 | 43 |
| MIN | SFO | 1 | -6 | -6 | 46.5 | 48 |
| NOR | TAM | 1 | -10 | -11 | 50 | 50 |
| NWE | HTX | 1 | -6 | -8 | 49.5 | 46 |
| NYG | JAX | 1 | +2.5 | +4.5 | 43 | 45.5 |
| PHI | ATL | 1 | -1 | -1 | 44.5 | 42 |
| RAI | RAM | 1 | +6.5 | +5 | 47.5 | 47 |
| RAV | BUF | 1 | -7.5 | -6.5 | 39 | 37.5 |
| SDG | KAN | 1 | -3.5 | -1 | 48 | 46 |
Model Accuracy
The following metrics are based on a comparison of our predictions to closing Vegas lines for each game (e.g., we use our model to predict a given game’s margin of victory, compare that prediction to the closing Vegas spread for that game, and mark the game as a win, loss, or push). The first set of results excludes games where the difference between our line and the betting market is negligible. Note that the 1.5 / 2 point thresholds were chosen based on optimization of out-of-sample prediction accuracy against the spread.
- Spreads Differing from Vegas by 1.5+ points: 40-43-2 (48.2%)
- Totals Differing from Vegas by 2+ points: 55-49 (52.9%)
- Spreads – All Games: 106-117-43 (47.5%) – Last Week: 0-2-0 (0.0%)
- Totals – All Games: 114-119-33 (48.9%) – Last Week: 0-1-1 (0.0%)
Updated 01/22/2019
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