Here is a quick recap of how The Model performed during the 2017 NCAA Tournament. At the bottom of the article, you can find links to all of our content from this year’s tournament.
Model Accuracy
In our bracket, we hit Oregon and North Carolina as Final Four teams and North Carolina in the championship game, but Arizona and Villanova let us down with early exits. Here is a quick summary of how each model performed on a game-by-game basis for all 63 tournament games from 2017. Our over/under probabilities led the way, finishing 67% against the Vegas totals.
- Win Probabilities: 47-15-1 (76%)
- Teams with Win Probabilities of 80% or more: 22-3 (88%). The 3 teams meeting this criterion that lost were:
- Duke (81%) vs. South Carolina
- Middle Tennessee (90%) vs. Butler
- Arizona (88%) vs. Xavier
- Against Vegas Spread: 34-26-3 (57%)
- Our Totals vs. Vegas Totals: 39-22-2 (64%)
- Our Over Probabilities: 42-21 (67%)
- Games where our total differed from Vegas by 5 points or more AND our probability of going over/under was at least 80%: 15-6 (71%)
All 2017 Content
Round 1: Win Probabilities | Spreads & Totals
Round 2: Win Probabilities | Spreads & Totals
Sweet 16: Win Probabilities | Spreads & Totals
Elite Eight: All Predictions
Final Four: All Predictions