In the two conference championship games on Sunday, our average probabilities went 1-1, correctly picking the Falcons (57%), but missing the Steelers (55%), to bring the average probability record for the playoffs to 8-2. Models 2 and 3 remained the most accurate, as they each had the Falcons winning (78% and 75%, respectively) and the Patriots winning (61% and 59%, respectively) to bring their records to 9-1 for the playoffs as a whole. Model 5 also went 2-0 this weekend, and improved to 8-2 for the playoffs. Our spread missed the Falcons (had ATL winning by only 3 points), but correctly predicted that the Patriots would cover (had NE winning by 7). Check back later this week for our Super Bowl predictions!
| MODEL | RD 1 | RD 2 | RD 3 | RD 4 | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 0-2 | – | 6-4 |
| Model 2 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 2-0 | – | 9-1 |
| Model 3 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 2-0 | – | 9-1 |
| Model 4 | 4-0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | – | 7-3 |
| Model 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 | 2-0 | – | 8-2 |
| Model 6 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 0-2 | – | 5-5 |
| Avg. | 4-0 | 3-1 | 1-1 | – | 8-2 |
| Spread (vs. Vegas) | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1-1 | – | 4-6 |
| Spread (Winner Correct) | 3-1 | 2-2 | 2-0 | – | 7-3 |